Prospects for democratic regime change in Cuba and Belarus civil society and political culture

Table of Contents

Introduction

Chapter 1 - Theoretical framework

Introduction

1.1 Civil Society

1.1.1 Civil Society Forces

1.1.2 Embryonic Civil Society

1.1.3 The Role of Civil Society in Transition

1.1.4 Civil Society - Regime Interaction

1.2 Regime Type

1.3 Political Culture

Chapter 2 - Totalitarist Cuba vs. Sultanist Belarus

Introduction

2.1 Cuba’s Personalistic Communist Dictatorship

2.2 Sultanism in Belarus

Conclusion- Implications for Regime Change and the Role of Civil Society

Chapter 3 - Political Culture in Cuba and Belarus

Introduction

3.1 Sources of Political Culture

3.2 Alexander Lukashenka, Keeping the Soviet Dream Alive!

3.3 Fidel Castro’s “Revolution” – National Unity and Social Values

3.4 Satisfaction with How the Things Go

3.5 Satisfaction with the Current Regime and Support for Democracy

Conclusion: Are “they” ready yet? - Implications for Democratic Regime Change

Chapter 4 - Civil Society in Cuba and Belarus

Introduction

4.1 The Emergence of an Embryonic Civil Society in Cuba – slowly but constantly

4.1.2 The Varela Project and Oswaldo Paya

4.1.3 The Cuban Spring and Las Damas de Blanco

4.1.4 The Cuban Forum and National Dialogue

4.2 The Abortion of the Embryo- the Set Back of Civil Society Development in Belarus

4.2.1 The Political Opposition and Its Way towards Marginalization

4.2.2 The Character of the Belarusian Opposition

4.2.3 The Rift between the Opposition and the Belorussian Society

4.2.4 The Failure of Unification and the Loss of Strength

Conclusion- Learning from Cuba

Conclusions

Research Objectives and Themes

This thesis examines the prospects for democratic transition in Cuba and Belarus by analyzing the roles of civil society and political culture as critical, non-elite variables that influence regime change. It seeks to answer whether civil society and political culture can generate the necessary pressure for democratization in these two nontransition cases.

• Role of civil society as a necessary condition for democratic transition.
• Impact of political culture on regime stability and potential for change.
• Qualitative comparative analysis of totalitarianism in Cuba and sultanism in Belarus.
• Barriers to democratic transition including state repression and elite-focused strategies.
• Analysis of opposition development and the role of charismatic leadership.

Excerpt from the Book

Summary of Chapters

Chapter 1 - Theoretical framework: Defines civil society, regime types, and political culture as essential variables for understanding democratic transitions.

Chapter 2 - Totalitarist Cuba vs. Sultanist Belarus: Contrasts the totalitarian communist structure of Cuba with the sultanistic personalistic autocracy in Belarus.

Chapter 3 - Political Culture in Cuba and Belarus: Investigates the historical sources and current state of political values in both countries and their impact on democratization prospects.

Chapter 4 - Civil Society in Cuba and Belarus: Compares the development and effectiveness of embryonic civil society and democratic opposition movements in both regimes.

Keywords

Democratization, Civil Society, Political Culture, Cuba, Belarus, Authoritarianism, Totalitarianism, Sultanism, Regime Change, Democratic Transition, Opposition, Fidel Castro, Alexander Lukashenka, Political Participation, Civic Engagement

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the core focus of this master thesis?

The thesis investigates the prospects for democratic regime change in two specific nontransition cases, Cuba and Belarus, with a focus on civil society and political culture.

Which regimes are being analyzed in this study?

The research compares the personalistic communist dictatorship of Cuba with the sultanistic autocracy under Alexander Lukashenka in Belarus.

What is the primary research question?

The study asks whether civil society and political culture influence democratic transition in Cuba and Belarus and which country holds better prospects for such a change.

What scientific methodology is utilized?

The author employs a qualitative comparative analysis, moving away from elite-centered approaches to focus on the role of civil society and the masses in the transition process.

What is discussed in the main sections of the work?

The main sections cover the theoretical framework of civil society and political culture, a comparative analysis of the specific regime types, and detailed examinations of political culture and civil society in both countries.

Which terms best characterize this academic work?

Key concepts include democratic transition, civil society development, political culture, authoritarian resilience, and comparative regime analysis.

How does political culture affect the democratic prospects in Belarus?

The author argues that a Soviet-style political culture, which prioritizes social stability and strong-hand rule, hampers the development of pro-democratic movements and creates public distrust towards alternative democratic visions.

What distinguishes the Cuban civil society from the Belarusian one?

While both are embryonic, the Cuban opposition is described as more united around a charismatic leader (Oswaldo Paya) and increasingly focused on reaching the population, whereas the Belarusian opposition remains fragmented by personal animosities and lacks a clear, cohesive strategy.