Forward (Kadima) to the Centre? - The Rise and Fall of Israeli Centre Parties

Table of Contents

• I. INTRODUCTION
• I.1 Aims and Objectives
• I.2 Research Question and Method
• I.3 Research to Date
• I.4 Structure of the Thesis
• II. ANALYTICAL BACKGROUND
• II.1 Political Parties
• II.1.1 What are Political Parties?
• II.1.2 Success and Failure: What Parties Want
• II.1.3 The Emergence of New Parties
• II.2 The Centre and Centre Parties
• II.2.1 Cleavages
• II.2.2 The Left-Right Continuum
• II.2.3 Party Positioning
• II.2.4 Party Positioning along Multiple Cleavages
• II.2.5 What is the Centre?
• II.2.6 Defining the Centre Party
• II.3 Party Systems
• II.3.1 Counting the Relevant Parties in Parliament
• II.3.2 Accounting for the Existence of a Dominant Party
• II.3.3 Accounting for the Existence of Blocs in the Party System
• II.3.4 Accounting for the Fragmentation of the Party System
• II.3.5 Accounting for the Polarization of the Party System
• II.3.6 Accounting for Relevant Anti-System Parties
• II.4 Party Leadership
• II.5 Hypotheses
• III. THE CASE OF ISRAEL
• III.1 Israeli Political Parties
• III.1.1 What Israeli Parties Want
• III.1.2 Centre and Centre Parties in Israel
• III.2 Cleavages in Israel
• III.2.1 The Security Cleavage
• III.2.2 The Economic Cleavage
• III.2.3 The Religious Cleavage
• III.2.4 Consensus and Shifts of Consensus
• III.3 The Israeli Party System
• III.3.1 A Multi-Party System with a Dominant Party (1949-1973)
• III.3.2 Phase of Transition (1973-1981)
• III.3.3 Two Blocs in a Multi-Party System (1981-1996)
• III.3.4 A Fragmented Multi-Party System (1996-2003)
• III.3.5 A Multi-Party System with a Core Party (2003-2005)
• III.4 Israeli Party Leadership
• IV. CENTRE PARTIES IN ISRAEL UNTIL 2005
• IV.1 RAFI (1965): In the Shadow of MAPAI
• IV.1.1 The Framework
• IV.1.2 The Party
• IV.1.3 The Elections
• IV.1.4 Conclusion
• IV.2 DASH (1977): Changing the System
• IV.2.1 The Framework
• IV.2.2 The Party
• IV.2.3 The Elections
• IV.2.4 Conclusion
• IV.3 TELEM (1981): With Dayan in the Centre
• IV.3.1 The Framework
• IV.3.2 The Party
• IV.3.3 The Elections
• IV.3.4 Conclusion
• IV.4 HADERECH HASHLISHIT (1996): Third Way with a Dead End
• IV.4.1 The Framework
• IV.4.2 The Party
• IV.4.3 The Elections
• IV.4.4 Conclusion
• IV.5 MIFLEGET HAMERKAZ (1999): Centre Is Where The Polls Are
• IV.5.1 The Framework
• IV.5.2 The Party
• IV.5.3 The Elections
• IV.5.4 Conclusion
• IV.6 Conclusion: Centre Parties in Israel
• V. KADIMA
• V.1 The Framework
• V.1.1 The Ascent of Ariel Sharon
• V.1.2 The Consensus
• V.1.3 LIKUD and AVODA after KADIMA’s Foundation
• V.2 The Party
• V.2.1 The Formation of KADIMA
• V.2.2 KADIMA’s Platform and Campaign
• V.2.3 KADIMA in the Polls
• V.3 The Elections
• V.3.1 Election Topics
• V.3.2 KADIMA’s Voters
• V.3.3 Forming the Government Coalition
• V.4 Conclusion
• V.4.1 KADIMA – a Centre Party?
• V.4.2 KADIMA Compared to other Israeli Centre Parties
• VI. CONCLUSION
• VI.1 Summary
• VI.2 Hypotheses Revisited
• VI.3 Outlook
• VI.4 And what of Kadima?

Objectives and Key Themes

This thesis aims to analyze the success of the Kadima party in the 2006 Israeli elections, comparing it to previous Israeli center parties. It seeks to understand why Kadima was so much more successful than its predecessors.

• The definition and characteristics of center parties.
• The role of party leadership and voter perception in electoral success.
• The influence of the Israeli party system and its dynamics on center party performance.
• Analysis of the platforms and strategies of Israeli center parties.
• The impact of major political events and shifts in national consensus on party success.

Chapter Summaries

Chapter I: Introduction lays out the research question and methodology, highlighting the previous neglect of center party research and the unique characteristics of the Israeli party system. It also reviews existing literature.

Chapter II: Analytical Background provides a theoretical framework for understanding political parties, including their goals, the emergence of new parties, and the complexities of defining and measuring party positions, particularly regarding the center.

Chapter III: The Case of Israel sets the context for the study, examining the Israeli party system's history, its key cleavages (security, economic, religious), and the role of party leadership.

Chapter IV: Center Parties in Israel Until 2005 analyzes five case studies of previous Israeli center parties (Rafi, Dash, Telem, Haderech HaShishit, Mifleget HaMerkaz), examining their platforms, electoral performance, and reasons for success or failure.

Chapter V: Kadima delves into the formation, platform, and electoral success of the Kadima party, comparing it to the previous case studies. It analyzes the role of Ariel Sharon and the evolving political landscape.

Keywords

Israeli politics, center parties, Kadima, party systems, electoral systems, party leadership, political cleavages, security cleavage, economic cleavage, religious cleavage, national consensus, comparative politics, qualitative analysis, coalition formation, electoral success, party platforms.