Masterarbeit, 2022
73 Seiten, Note: 3.0
Introduction
1 International Relations (IR) Theory / Hypotheses
1.1 Realism
1.2 Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA)
1.3 Hypotheses
2 The Case of Bahrain
2.1 Saudi-Bahraini links
2.2 Iranian-Bahraini links
2.3 The uprising in 2011
2.4 Saudi policies towards Bahrain
3 The Case of Yemen
3.1 Saudi-Yemeni links
3.2 Iranian-Yemeni links
3.3 The war in Yemen
3.4 Saudi policies towards Yemen
4 Evaluation of Hypotheses
5 Conclusion
6 Bibliography
7 Online Sources
This master thesis investigates the foreign policy behavior of Saudi Arabia towards Bahrain and Yemen since 2011, examining whether these actions were primarily reactive to Iranian influence or driven by domestic and other systemic factors.
The Case of Yemen
The developments in the Middle East (particularly in Syria and Egypt) have shaped the way Saudi Arabia perceives its political role in the region. The war in Syria, where Saudi Arabia could not achieve its primary goal (i.e. toppling Assad), has led to a more proactive Saudi regional policy which was nurtured by Riyadh’s disappointment over Obama’s passivity towards the Assad regime. Moreover, when the leadership in Riyadh realized that the Obama administration remained passive towards the fall of Saudi Arabia’s Egyptian ally Hosni Mubarak (1928–2020) in 2011, suspicion towards Washington grew and the kingdom increasingly came to believe it had to defend its interests on its own. The Syrian and Egyptian experiences, coupled with the Iran nuclear deal in 2015 (and the negotiations leading up to it), contributed to a much more aggressive Saudi regional strategy, especially with regards to Yemen. Even Obama had lent military support to the Yemen intervention (at least in its earlier stages), but it wasn’t until Donald Trump took office in January 2017 that Saudi Arabia was again allied with an American president who shared Riyadh’s position on Iran.
In addition to their anti-Iran stance, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have also identified another enemy in the region, namely the Muslim Brotherhood. Both countries have banned the organization and consequently stopped supporting its Yemeni wing al-Islah (“Yemeni Congregation for Reform”). While proscribing the Muslim Brotherhood certainly results from a fear for regime survival (just as in Egypt since 2013), it also highlights a new attempt at authoritarian and anti-Islamist governance in these countries.
Introduction: Provides the context of the regional "Cold War" between Saudi Arabia and Iran and outlines the scope of the study regarding events in Bahrain and Yemen since 2011.
1 International Relations (IR) Theory / Hypotheses: Establishes the theoretical framework by discussing Realism and Foreign Policy Analysis and presents the specific hypotheses to be tested.
2 The Case of Bahrain: Analyzes the political and security relationship between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, focusing on the 2011 uprising and the Saudi assessment of Iranian involvement.
3 The Case of Yemen: Explores the Saudi-Yemeni relations, the rise of the Houthi movement, and the subsequent military intervention by a Saudi-led coalition.
4 Evaluation of Hypotheses: Reviews the previously formulated hypotheses against the empirical findings to determine if they hold true or need revision.
5 Conclusion: Synthesizes the findings of the study, emphasizing the role of power politics and state security over religious ideology in guiding Saudi foreign policy.
6 Bibliography: Contains the full list of academic sources and literature used for the research.
7 Online Sources: Lists the web-based reports, news articles, and documents cited in the thesis.
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Bahrain, Yemen, Foreign Policy, Regional Hegemony, Realism, Sectarianism, Houthi Movement, Arab Spring, Regime Security, Proxy Conflict, Middle East, Geopolitics, Military Intervention
This work explores Saudi Arabia's foreign policy behavior toward Bahrain and Yemen since the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2011.
The manuscript covers the "Cold War" between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the influence of Realist theory on foreign policy, sectarian dynamics, and the impact of domestic versus regional political factors.
The thesis aims to assess whether Saudi foreign policy interventions in Bahrain and Yemen were essentially reactions to Iranian influence or whether they were motivated by other, perhaps more significant, domestic or systemic drivers.
The author employs a comparative approach, utilizing the framework of Realist and Neoclassical Realist international relations theory as well as Foreign Policy Analysis to examine political behavior.
The main body is divided into two primary case studies, providing a detailed look at the internal and external political environment, the specific historical links to Iran, and the evolution of Saudi policy in both Bahrain and Yemen.
Key terms include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Bahrain, Yemen, Regional Hegemony, Realism, Sectarianism, Proxy Conflict, and Regime Security.
The author defines influence as the modification of one actor's behavior by that of another, based on the work of political scientists Cox and Jacobson.
The author concludes that while there was fear of Iranian interference, the 2011 uprising in Bahrain was primarily a domestic protest movement, and the Saudi response was largely driven by a Realist concern for maintaining the status quo.
The author argues that while the Houthis have established ties to Iran, they are an indigenous movement whose rise was primarily due to internal Yemeni factors, with Iranian support acting as a consequence rather than a cause.
The author suggests that Saudi Arabia faces significant pressure to manage domestic economic reforms (Vision 2030) and that the failure of military intervention to achieve quick victories may necessitate more realistic, diplomatic approaches to regional security.
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