What Drives Pricing Behavior in Peer-to-Peer Loan Primary and Secondary Markets?

Two regressions were used to analyse the composition of the interest rate on the primary market and the discount rate on the unregulated secondary market of the Estonian peer-to-peer lending platform Bondora. Furthermore, it was investigated how different dummy variables affect the pricing behaviour on the primary market, and if Bondora fulfills the classic peer-to-peer promises.

What drives pricing behavior in peer-to-peer loan primary and secondary markets? To answer this question, datasets from the P2P platform Bondora are examined. For the pricing behavior on the primary market, the effects of different variables on the interest rate set by the platform on Bondora are tested. The pricing behavior on the secondary market, on the other hand, is investigated regarding the discount rate. It can be used to examine which factors of a loan lead to its shares being sold at a premium or discount to the fundamental value. The regressions revealed that the expected loss has the strongest influence on the interest rate in the primary market. The effect of the expected loss on the interest rate was positive. However, gender also plays an important role in determining the price of a loan, it was found that women pay a significantly smaller interest rate than men. In general, a large part of the variance of the interest rate can be determined with the presented models. In contrast, pricing behavior in the secondary market is not as easy to predict, probably due to irrationality and cognitive limitations. Although all variables in the secondary market regression were significant, the adjusted R2 was very small at 1%. The days since the borrower defaulted had the largest impact on the price in terms of amount. Curiously, more days in default even meant that the loan share was more likely to be sold at a premium.