Bachelorarbeit, 2010
64 Seiten, Note: 1,2
1 Introduction
1.1 Problem Definition and Objective
1.2 Course of Investigation
2 Background
2.1 A Short Review of the History of Strategy
2.2 Strategy and Firm Performance
2.3 The Strategic Management Process
2.4 Dynamic Environments
2.4.1 Literature Review
2.4.2 Velocity
2.4.3 Complexity
2.4.4 Uncertainty
2.4.5 Unpredictability
2.5 Strategy in Dynamic Environments
2.6 Analysis Framework
3 Strategic Tools in Dynamic Environments
3.1 Literature Review
3.2 Basics of Strategic Tools
3.3 Use of Strategic Tools in Practice
3.4 SWOT
3.4.1 Basics of SWOT
3.4.2 Shortcomings of SWOT
3.4.3 SWOT in Dynamic Environments
3.5 Porter’s 5 Forces
3.5.1 Basics of Porter’s Five Forces
3.5.2 Shortcomings of Porter’s Five Forces
3.5.3 Porter’s Five Forces in Dynamic Environments
3.6 PEST Analysis
3.6.1 Basics of PEST Analysis
3.6.2 PEST Analysis in Dynamic Environments
3.7 Scenario Analysis and Forecasting
3.7.1 Basics of Scenario Analysis and Forecasting
3.7.2 Critical Factors of Scenario Analysis and Forecasting
3.7.3 Scenario Analysis and Forecasting in Dynamic Environments
3.8 Discussion of Findings
4 A New Framework for Strategic Tools in Dynamic Environments
4.1 Foundations of the Framework
4.2 Opportunity Recognition
4.3 Opportunity Analysis
4.4 Opportunity Evaluation
5 Limitations
6 Conclusion
The primary objective of this thesis is to explore whether strategic tools developed for stable environments remain applicable in dynamic environments or whether specific constraints exist. By synthesizing existing literature on strategy in dynamic environments, the author develops an analysis framework to evaluate key strategic tools and proposes a new, structured approach for their effective use in volatile market conditions.
2.4.3 Complexity
Complexity is defined “as the number of features of an opportunity that must be correctly executed to capture that opportunity” (Davis et al., 2009, p. 423). This means that each opportunity is equipped with features and if a firm wants to successfully take advantage of an opportunity it must address those features correctly. For example, a firm must correctly execute a number of steps of a plan (Davis et al., 2009, p. 423). Furthermore, this implies that if an opportunity has more features, the probability that all necessary features are addressed becomes lower and, therefore, the opportunity becomes more complex. The link between complexity and environment is that opportunities emerge out of the environment, therefore, making the environment complex. Thus, complex environments are particularly unattractive as with high complexity the probability that the necessary features are addressed correctly falls, which leads to lower performance (Davis et al., 2009, p. 442).
While the definition above is only unidimensional, Duncan (1972, p. 325) adds a second dimension that describes the heterogeneity or homogeneity of the features over time. Based on this definition, Tung (1979) relates it to managerial tasks and proved that with increasing complexity, this means with a higher number of features and a higher degree of heterogeneity amongst the features, “the CEO's cognitive abilities to grasp and comprehend the relationships that exist among” (p. 675) the features become limited which is then perceived as uncertainty. Cannon and John (2007, p. 314) provide a framework for measuring the overall complexity of an environment. While measuring complexity is not the purpose of this work, their four different domains, including competitive complexity, market diversity, resource complexity, and process/facility complexity, are interesting to evaluate the strategic tools later on.
Davis et al. (2009, p. 420) present an interesting paper of Sine, Haveman, and Tolbert (2005) that illustrates complexity with a real case. The paper is about the risk of opportunities for entrepreneurs in the new independent power sector in the United States. The complexity of the sector arises from the opportunity contingencies in the fields of technology, production process selection (Sine et al., 2005, pp. 214-215) and regulatory aspects (Sine et al., 2005, pp. 208-209). While the complexity in this industry arises from opportunity contingencies, it also shows that complexity must not always be accompanied by velocity.
1 Introduction: Defines the research problem regarding the applicability of traditional strategic tools in dynamic environments and outlines the structure of the paper.
2 Background: Reviews the history of strategy and firm performance, while establishing the four key dimensions (velocity, complexity, uncertainty, unpredictability) that characterize dynamic environments.
3 Strategic Tools in Dynamic Environments: Evaluates specific strategic tools (SWOT, Porter's 5 Forces, PEST, Scenario Analysis) against the developed analysis framework to determine their feasibility in volatile settings.
4 A New Framework for Strategic Tools in Dynamic Environments: Proposes a new three-step framework consisting of opportunity recognition, analysis, and evaluation to guide managers in using strategic tools effectively.
5 Limitations: Discusses the theoretical nature of the study and acknowledges that the derived framework requires practical validation.
6 Conclusion: Summarizes the findings and highlights the necessity for further research to bridge the gap between theory and real-life strategic practice.
Strategy, Dynamic Environments, Strategic Tools, Opportunity Recognition, Opportunity Analysis, Opportunity Evaluation, Velocity, Complexity, Uncertainty, Unpredictability, Porter's 5 Forces, SWOT Analysis, PEST Analysis, Scenario Planning, Competitive Advantage
The paper examines why traditional strategic management tools, which were designed for stable environments, often fail or underperform in highly dynamic and unpredictable business environments.
The author identifies velocity, complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability as the four critical dimensions that define dynamic market environments.
The goal is to provide a structured approach to strategic analysis that allows companies to recognize, analyze, and evaluate opportunities in fast-changing environments while maintaining the necessary flexibility.
The research evaluates the SWOT analysis, Porter's Five Forces, PEST analysis, and Scenario Analysis/Forecasting.
The author concludes that while traditional tools do not "make strategy," they remain desirable for structuring data and generating insight, provided their limitations in dynamic contexts are understood and managed.
The framework is structured into three consecutive steps: Opportunity Recognition (data collection), Opportunity Analysis (understanding features), and Opportunity Evaluation (assessing outcomes).
The framework is primarily environment-oriented but encourages the integration of internal competencies at each stage to align environmental opportunities with firm capabilities.
The future scorecard is highlighted as a promising tool for linking external scenarios with internal resources during the strategy implementation and control phases, though the author focuses the thesis primarily on the analysis phase.
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