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List of Tables
List of Figures
List of Abbreviations
1.1 Purpose of the Study
1.3. Methods of Analysis
1.4. Plan of Work
1.5. Data Sources
1.6. Findings of Dissertation
2. The Influence of Culture and Bounded Rationality on Economic Choices
2.1. Culture and Economic Decision Making
2.1.1. Definition of the Term Culture
2.1.2. The Link between Culture and Economic Choices: Two Perspectives
184.108.40.206. The Macro Perspective
220.127.116.11. The Micro Perspective
2.2. Bounded Rationality and Economic Decision Making
2.2.1. The Efficient Market Hypothesis as Proxy Model
2.2.2. From Utility Maximisation to Prospect Theory
18.104.22.168. Expected Utility and Utility Maximisation Theory
22.214.171.124. Cognitive Biases
126.96.36.199. Prospect Theory
2.3. Linking Culture and Bounded Rationality
3. Conceptual Framework
3.1. Home Bias and Diversification Theory
3.2. Dimensions of Culture and Economic preferences: Borrowing from Project GLOBE
4. Data and Method
4.1. Cross- Country Outbound FDI Regression
4.2. Survey for the Individual Level Regression
4.2.2. Risk Preferences
4.2.3. Investment Preferences or Extent of Home Bias
4.2.4. Cultural Dimensions
5. Empirical Results
5.1. FDI Regression Results
5.2. Survey Regression Results
6. Discussion and Conclusion
6.1. Culture and Home Bias at the Macro Level
6.2. Culture and Home Bias at the Individual Level
6.3. Joint Discussion
6.4. Summary and Conclusion
6.4.2. Theoretical and Practical Implications
List of References
List of Appendices
Table 1: Overview of Hypotheses
Table 2: Required Survey Regression Variables
Table 3: Results of the Multi Model FDI Regression
Table 4: Results of the Single Model FDI Regression
Table 5: Adjusted Coefficients of Determination of Control Variables
Table 6: Results of Multi Model Survey Regression
Table 7: Additional Results of the Survey Answers
Table 8: Relation of Cultural Dimensions and Home Bias from FDI Regression
Table 9: Relations of Cultural Dimensions and Home Bias from Survey Regression
Table 10: Hypotheses Results from both Regressions
Figure 1: Value Function of Prospect Theory
Figure 2: Cultural Impacts on Financial Decision Making (Bontempo, Bottom and Weber)
Figure 3: Cultural Impacts on Financial Decision Making (Weber and Hsee)
Figure 4: Conceptual Framework
Figure 5: Methodological Concept
illustration not visible in this excerpt
This thesis investigates cultural and cognitive behavioural determinants of Home Bias through individual and macro level regressions. Cultural dimensions of Project GLOBE provide the basis for the development of a relational model and the hypotheses. Through theorising this link, this thesis shows that culture has an influence specifically on investment choices, but in a wider sense on all economic choices humans undertake. The knowledge of those influences helps business managers in conducting international business by analysing local demand more accurately and gaining competitive advantages through knowledge. Although research has been conducted in this field, no approach on culture and Home Bias has aimed at incorporating all GLOBE dimensions in one model or analysed Home Bias outside of fund levels and examined the individual level. This thesis fills the gap in the literature and thereby contributes to cross- cultural research. The analysis finds that on an individual level, power distance is the only significant cultural determinant of Home Bias. The macro levels yields assertiveness, performance orientation and gender egalitarianism as significant results, depending on the regression model. The significance of the findings is low and inconsistent in dimensions, which calls for better quantification models of cultural value traits in regard to economic decisions.
In a modern business environment managers are facing an increasing pressure to internationalise their business in order to keep up with competition that is no longer local but global. The servicing of home markets alone is often not enough to satisfy stakeholders and achieve efficiency gains (Levis et al, 2010). Business managers are increasingly confronted with the task of which product to market internationally and where to market it best. A lot of international diversifications have failed because the target market and especially the customers were not understood well enough. An example in this context was Wal-Mart's failure to enter the South Korean and German market. Gandolfi and Strach (2009) have examined WalMarts attempt to internationalise to South Korea and attributed the failure to the misjudgement of consumer preferences of the Korean people. A different culture can be one of the main obstacles for international business, but if understood and conceptualised can provide a competitive advantage over other companies (Tse et al., 1988). An attempt to better serve the consumption requirements of humans is to understand and predict their cognitive behaviour to situations as well as the preferences they have developed in light of their cultural background. Human choices or the question "Why do people want what they want" is fundamental to International Business Managers and marks the basis for cultural theory (Thompson et al, 1990).
This thesis aims at understanding differences in preferences that humans have internalised, from a cognitive and a cultural point of view. This is formulated in the research question: Do cultural value traits influence investment preferences that are subject to cognitive biases. For this purpose the example of Home Bias is selected to show how humans act commonly different to the way economics prescribes them to behave. This phenomenon is linked to culture to establish a relationship between cognitive behaviour and cultural behaviour. Although research has been conducted in this field by Anderson et al. (2010) and Beugelsdijk and Frijns (2010), no approach has aimed at incorporating all GLOBE dimensions, Home Bias outside of fund levels and the individual level. This thesis fills the gap in the literature and contributes to cross- cultural research. Furthermore, this thesis extents the existing business literature on Rational Choice such as Kahneman and Tversky (1986) by adding culture to the descriptive model of choice.
The purpose of this study is to theoretically establish and practically test a link between culturally based preferences, Bounded Rationality and resulting investment choices. Through theorising this link and testing an empirical connection, the thesis shows that culture has an influence specifically on investment choices, but in a wider sense on all economic choices humans undertake. This concept is underlined by the theory of Bounded Rationality to show that the view on preferences should be altered in mainstream economic theory, as it involves cognitive limitations. In this regard, the underlying research provokes a revision of the concept of Rational Choice. Additionally, culture should no longer be treated as exogenous to economic models but be integrated in the concept of decision making, in order to encourage the development of more accurate estimations of consumer behaviour.
The audience of this thesis are international business managers in general, but especially those with a marketing and sales related background, as well as financial managers and academic researchers. The question of influences on human preference formation is answered by culture and Bounded Rationality. While there are certainly other variables that have an impact, the aforementioned variables aid in developing models that can predict human economic behaviour to increase business effectiveness. The knowledge of those impacts helps business managers in conducting international business by analysing local demand more accurately and gaining competitive advantages out of this knowledge. Furthermore the thesis identifies limitations of existing literature related to the field of culture and encourages improvements as well as further research.
The method utilised to analyse the theorised correlations of the hypotheses is a quantitative approach. Data was collected by the means of a survey to test for a link between cultural dimensions and extent of Home Bias on an individual level. On a national level, macro data is regressed with the cultural dimensions as indicated by Project GLOBE. For this purpose Home Bias is substituted by the ratio of outbound Foreign Direct investments (OFDI) as percentage of Gross National Product (GDP) per country. Regression analyses were conducted through Microsoft Excel.
The thesis is structured as follows: An overview on recent debates on the link between cultural value traits, Bounded Rationality and Behavioural Finance is provided in the theoretical background of chapter two. The literature section provides an overview to the reader, why culture and cognitive limitations are important aspects to incorporate into business decisions. Concepts on both aspects are linked with the help of academic contributions to be concluded by the introduction of Prospect Theory. Out of these concepts a conceptual model is derived and Home Bias as an example of a cognitive limitation regarding investment decisions is selected and theorised. With the help of pre- defined cultural dimensions of Project GLOBE, hypotheses are developed that relate cultural value traits to levels of Home Bias. The theorised hypotheses are tested empirically through the regression of collected primary as well as macroeconomic data. The results of these regressions are discussed and provide the basis for the conclusion and suggestions for further research.
Primary data was collected through the means of a survey that was developed for the purpose of this research and conducted online. The data for the regression of FDI with cultural dimensions is based on the year 2009 due to availability of data and stems from three sources. OFDIs per country and the population figures per country were provided by the CIA World Factbook. Gross National Income (GNI) per capita and GDP figures were provided by the World Bank. Dimensions of Culture and the relevant national results were provided by Project GLOBE.
The findings yield a link between specific cultural value traits and investment decisions, which positively answers the research question. However, statistical results are not clear cut between the individual and the macro level, which constitutes important implications for further research. Especially the quantitative tools to measure culture need to be altered and further developed with special reference to economic purpose.
A well- known concept on the goals of conducting business is profit maximisation, which has its origin in classical economic theory of Rational Choice and Utility Maximisation. Business managers need to conduct actions that have Profit Maximisation as their ultimate goal. Profit Maximisation converges with Utility Maximisation in the long- term (Formby and Millner, 1985). This is where the concept falls short of practical evidence that shows that businessmen rather satisfice than maximise (Simon, 1978). In organisational terms the "garbage can model" offers critique to rational decision models. It states that different streams of influence, such as decision opportunities and participants, enhance the probability that certain decisions are being made by intuition rather than approaching the decision fully rational (Cohen et al., 1972). The same principle holds true for consumers who do not distribute their purchases to maximise utility as evident from negatively sloping demand curves. To account for these deviations from theory, research has begun to focus on the ways in which decisions are made, not merely the outcomes of decisions. Experiments on human behaviour have added proof that Expected Utility Theory does not provide a reasonable approximation of behaviour (Simon, 1978). From a business point of view, the question of how humans arrive at decisions is central to not only managing an organisation, but to better understand consumer behaviour. Concepts that add to our understanding of this decision process are Bounded Rationality and preferences formed through culture. These concepts shall be clarified and linked in the extent of this section.
One of the most important assumptions on human economic behaviour that was and still is incorporated into economic models, is the self- interest of humans, also referred to as Canonical Model: The "homo economicus'" desired outcome of taking part in economic exchange is personal Profit Maximization. However, studies show that humans are also interested in fairness and reciprocity, even at the expense of their own payoffs. Fundamental questions in this regard are raised by Henrich et al. (2001):
"Are the deviations from the canonical model evidence of universal patterns of behavior, or do the individual's economic and social environments shape behavior? If the latter, which economic and social conditions are involved? Is reciprocal behavior better explained statistically by individuals' attributes such as their sex, age, or relative wealth, or by the attributes of the group to which the individuals belong? Are there cultures that approximate the canonical account of self-regarding behavior?" (p. 73)
To answer these questions that provide the basic theoretical foundation for this paper, Henrich et al. (2001) examine small scale societies. They find that differences in economic behaviour between societies stem from different preferences or expectations between groups. These inter- group differences are due to different social institutions or cultural fairness norms. From their work the assumption can be drawn, that culture influences economic decision making. The extent of this influence however, is the significant question. Will an incorporation of culture aid in rendering prediction models more precise or only add complexity with little accuracy benefits? To shed light on this question, this thesis further develops the concept by linking economic choices to specific cultural value traits and examining the link both theoretically and empirical.
The following section provides a brief definition of the term culture, to be followed by theories on how culture impacts economics by drawing on recent research.
Culture is a vast field of research and it is hard to find a perfect definition. Culture can be defined as civilization, where a common education, arts and crafts and manners define a common heritage. The definition this thesis will utilize is of anthropological origin. Hofstede (1980, 2001) defines it as the "collective programming of the mind" that creates a difference in how groups and members of a society such as a nation can be distinguished. In this regard Hofstede (2011) sees it as the way people think, feel and act or the "unwritten rules of the social game". To specify, national cultures have been found to differ through mostly unconscious values that a majority of a population share and that are different to the values of other populations. Values again can be described as "broad preferences for one state of affairs over others" (Hofstede, 1984, p. 389). These preferences are very stable over time as they are based on what we learn in childhood, requiring generations for them to change. Hofstede (1980, 2001), as one of the pioneers in this field of research, has developed an approach by establishing dimensions of key cultural differences between nations. Different nations scored differently on these dimensions on a scale from 0-100. Other researchers have picked up on these dimensions such as Schwartz (1990) and Triandis (1995). Project GLOBE is another important framework and the most comprehensive model up to date. The dimensions of Project GLOBE are an underlying part of this research and will be introduced in more detail in the process of this paper.
Hofstede's work however, especially his methodology, has also received considerable critique. Some aspects of this critique need to be highlighted, as limitations of his approach to quantify values are also subject to this work, with regard to the utilised Project GLOBE framework:
- Representativeness of questionnaires. From certain countries only a small amount of questionnaires were obtained, leaving the representativeness of the responses for the whole country under research in question.
- Clear distinction of cultures. Hofstede sees three types of culture. Occupational (acquired with education), national (every nation has an average preference tendency) and organisational (values shared by members of an organisation) culture. Hofstede claims that he controlled for occupational and organisational culture by selecting his target group accordingly. His survey was conducted with IBM employees in different countries and it remains highly doubtful that every IBM subsidiary employee, independent of country and time of subsidiary existence, shares exactly the same organisational culture as all other IBM employees.
- Steadiness over time. Occupational and national culture are imprinted into the mind in childhood and are from then on continuous and do not change. People who work in marketing in different countries still share the same occupational culture, no matter what and where they have studied or how they ended up in marketing.
- Representativeness of respondents. In- country differences between responses lead to a national average, as no individual inhibits the one national culture. It is therefore hard if not impossible to find the one representative group for a national average. Hofstede claims he has a representative national average by drawing on samples from microenvironments.
- Alternative explanation. Hofstede does not include variables that may additionally be responsible for answers, except for culture. Variables could have been age, race, gender and education. Instead Hofstede attributes all answer differences to national culture (McSweeney, 2002).
The above listed points reflect the critique on Hofstede's work, but also on value quantification in general, which is deemed important for the method and results of this paper. The critique is also relevant to Project GLOBE which uses similar methodology and will be incorporated and further discussed in the methodology and discussion section.
This section theorises how culture relates to economic decision making by drawing on two perspectives. Culture in the context of economics relates to the fact that it influences the choices we make on a daily basis. Michael and Becker (1973) address the problems regarding the incorporation of choice theories into economic models regarding different preferences or tastes of individuals:
"For economists to rest a large part of their theory of choice on differences in tastes is disturbing since they admittedly have no useful theory of the formation of tastes, nor can they rely on a well-developed theory of tastes from any other discipline in the social sciences, since none exists. (...) The weakness in the received theory of choice, then, is the extent to which it relies on differences in tastes to "explain " behavior when it can neither explain how tastes are formed nor predict their effects (p. 380)."
One of the possibilities to explain how the tastes and preferences of individuals develop lies within culture. Since culture is hard to grasp due to its broad definition and channelling, economists have been very reluctant to incorporate cultural aspect into economic theories. Recently, hypotheses regarding the testing of the relation between culture and economic outcomes have improved. Mainly the increased availability of data has made it possible to test for systematic differences in preferences and beliefs and to draw conclusions leading to culture as an explanation for economic phenomena (Guiso et al., 2006). This can be viewed upon from two sides. The link between culture and economics can be studied on a macroeconomic level, by examining national economic indicators and comparing them to national cultural value traits (see for example: Granato et al., 1996; Ball, 2001). Another view is the microeconomic or individual level: Examining the economic choices individuals make and analysing how culture influences these choices. Ultimately, individual choices that are executed through a common culture will have visible effects on a macro level. However, the choices derived on a micro level need to be understood, to comprehend the effects of culture on the macro level. This thesis focuses on both levels and compares them with the help of empirical measures to follow the decision making process of the individual and trace it to macroeconomic effects. In the following section both points of view are presented: The macroeconomic level and the microeconomic level, where I argue in detail how attributes of culture relate to choice and ultimately economic outcomes.
A prominent measure to test the influence of culture on economics has been to compare different nations' economic indicators with scores on the dimensions of culture that were identified for these countries through surveys (Dodor and Rana, 2007; Papamarcos and Watson; 2006; Gorodnichenco and Roland, 2011). While a common concept for explaining differences between countries' economic performance are different stages of development in time, where eventually all poorer nations catch up to developed nations, structuralists have critiqued this approach. Structuralists claim that some nations are not simply in a different stage of development, but feature distinct structural differences that distinguish them from other nations in the long term (Dodor and Rana, 2007). Part of these different structures stem from different formal and informal institutions that are rooted within national culture and are steady over time.
Although the logic behind this concept seems justified, this "cultural determinism", a concept derived from Max Weber (1906), bears the great danger of rendering certain cultures as superior to others by distinguishing them in terms of wealth creating capabilities. Culture is one factor that may enhance economic development, however one among many others. Jared Diamond (1997) has picked up on this issue and arrived at the conclusion that there are many impacts on economic development that stem from geography, such as fertile land, availability of resources and climate. Culture has no impact on these factors and can therefore not explain economic development on its own. Dodor and Rana (2007), who argue in the line of cultural determinism, find two ways in which culture affects economic development. Firstly, the intrinsic value accorded to cultural activities within a society and the influence of processes that were formed by culture has an impact on the values of the perceived well-being of a certain society. Secondly, culture influences how humans, including the formed institutions of a given society, perceive and react to economic opportunities and economic changes. This argument can be developed further by drawing on Fukuyama (2001). He argues that through a distinct organisational culture, embedded in national culture, production can be enhanced by the values a company inhibits. These values may include a more flexible reaction to a changing economic environment, quicker reaction due to the predominant hierarchical structure and an ethic of wealth maximisation by continuous improvements. Furthermore, societies that take advantages of work possibilities and inhibit a climate of material consumption will increase overall production. Institutions that aid free trade and penalise free riders and corruption will also benefit economic wealth. Another point that overlaps partly with the individual level is trust and cooperation development of societies, familiar under the concept of "social capital" (Fukuyama, 2001). Societies that encourage trust and cooperation will be more likely to be able to govern themselves without central hierarchy and encourage and facilitate economic activity.
The macro perspective measures societal or national attributes and relates them to economic activity. For example, a society that has institutions which punish free riders is more successful in economic terms over a nation or society without these institutions. In order to determine how individuals that share cultural value traits arrive at these national or cultural attributes, i.e. institutions that punish free riders, a look on the individual level is necessary.
By using the concept of micro perspective, this section reasons how culture influences decisions on the individual level that result in economic outcomes. For this purpose two important factors, namely trust as result of prior beliefs and preferences are theorised. Trust and prior beliefs are influenced by culture within a society and impact business activity as Arrow (1972) stated:
"Virtually every commercial transaction has within itself an element of trust, certainly any transaction conducted over a period of time" (p. 357).
Furthermore, socialisation processes maintain and transmit culture and thereby impact on the values of individuals. These values form preferences that affect economic outcomes (Guiso et al., 2006).
Trust and Prior Beliefs
Trust is one of the key variables in the link between culture and economics on an individual level. Different cultures have developed different levels of trust towards members of their own society and members of other societies and can be defined as "the subjective probability with which an agent assesses that another agent or group of agents will perform a particular action" (Gambetta, 2000; p. 217) or "Trust is the expectation that arises within a community of regular, honest, and cooperative behavior, based on commonly shared norms, on the part of other members ofthat community" (Fukuyama, 1995; p. 26). Trust in this sense is of sociological origin as it is necessary and beneficial only in social interactions as alternative to rational prediction in order to minimise complexity. When rational predictions are too complex to construct, trust offers a way around predictions by living as if certain rational futures will not occur, hence reducing complexity in the decision making process. From an economic perspective, trust needs to be differentiated between interpersonal and systems trust. In a small scale society, interpersonal trust is based on personal knowledge and experience of the opposite, rather guided by emotions. Trusting the trading partner to act in a specific manner can serve as a basis of conducting business. When societies grow and increase in complexity, interpersonal trust is often no longer a sufficient means to conduct business, as the pace of business interaction increases and new business partners are unfamiliar on a personal level. Common regulations and ultimately institutions are set up to enforce regulation and facilitate impersonal trading with the means to prosecute unfavourable behaviour. People then develop trust towards that system, based on rather cognitive calculations on the effectiveness of the system (Lewis and Weigert, 1985).
There is a dispute in the academic literature whether trust is rooted in culture or institutionalism (Nannestad and Svendsen, 2005). These two opinions may eventually be two sides of the same picture, as culture forms institutions (Fukuyama, 2001), that enhance trust within a society and towards those institutions, forming a basis for further trust and less complexity and obstacles in trade.
In "The Moral basis of a backward society", Banfleld (1958) relates a strong form of selfinterest In southern Italy as a reason for its economic underdevelopment. Northern Italy on the other hand had a deep routed tradition of free city trade since the middle-ages that required the evolution of impersonal trust in order to trade with strangers. Southern- Italy was not largely involved in such a system and lacked the evolution of trust that extended over the near social community (Putnam, 1993; Fukuyama, 1995). The cultural differences between the North and the South show how different levels of trust are formed. To extent, culture led to the foundations of institutions that enhance trust towards the success of individual trades. Collective punishment systems between trade intensive cities in the North are examples of these institutions (Greif, 2006).
Trust is very much influenced by acquired prejudices. Parents, amongst others, share learned knowledge with their children, which also includes lessons on who to trust. Taking these prior beliefs to a national level, deep rooted prejudices against other countries exist, often due to historical events that influence the level of trust between cultures and are visible in the actions of individuals. Guiso et al. (2004) have examined this phenomenon and find that culture largely impacts trust and trust again impacts economic exchange between countries. Knack and Keefer (1996) confirm and find that countries that encourage trust between its inhabitants tend to have an increased level of inter- trade and therefore economic performance. In order to link the concept of systems trust to capital markets, Guiso et al. (2008) contribute important findings. They examine trust as a cultural based factor in relation to stock investment and find that the level of trust is an explanation why certain people participate in the stock market and others choose not to.
Another important factor in the link between economics and culture are preferences or the question: Why do people want what they want? A simple answer would be that these preferences are partly founded in biological needs, such as the preference for food high in nutrition. These basic needs, although expressed in different eating habits, are the same to all humans, simply due to the need for survival. Other preferences differ between different groups of humans, because these preferences have developed within their culture and may be derived from biological aspects. Our preferences or interests are therefore due to social relations we take part in (Wildavsky, 1987). A debate on preferences exists in the question if these should be exogenous or endogenous to economics which again is at the basis of this research. Often economists regard preferences as exogenous or external to the system that is under research as these cannot be analysed. Stigler and Becker (1977), who debate this point, clearly express the economic opinion on preferences or tastes:
"(...) one does not argue about tastes for the same reason that one does not argue over the Rocky Mountains - both are there, will be there next year, too, and are the same to all men" (p. 76).
Cultural theory on the contrary sees preferences as endogenous and different to men: They form through social interactions by defending or opposing ways of life within cultural collectives. The preferences evolve around shared norms and values of that group towards a common opinion on life and are visible through common practices of the specific group. This argument leads to the term of cultural rationality. Cultural rationality is given if individuals act in a way that supports the groups' attitude towards its way of life (Wildavsky, 1987). The derived conclusion of this work is that cultural rationality does not necessarily match economic rationality: A line of thought that has not received enough attention in mainstream economics up to date.
The previous section emphasised cultural influences on human decision making and linked them to economic choices. Another aspect that has only recently been introduced to economics is human cognition. Not only culture, but psychology aids in explaining how humans arrive at choices. This is of special relevance in an international business context: To differentiate between the choices we make, because individuals are homogenous through cognitive capabilities, or the choices we make because we are part of a collective that has common preferences and prior beliefs. The latter part aims at cultural influences on our economic decisions, the first part at human cognitive capabilities. Both concepts are exogenous to mainstream economic choice theory, resulting in poor prediction of actual outcomes.
The following section is dedicated to human cognition to depict how cognitive limitations are responsible for the decisions we make. I will begin by looking at the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) as part of financial theory to arrive at the concept of cognitive limitations and resulting bias towards economic choices. I will then link the described fields of culture and cognitive limitations by drawing on Prospect Theory.
Economic and financial models often do not draw an adequate picture of reality, being normative rather than descriptive. Donald McKenzie (2006) has picked up on the matter in his famous work 'An engine, not a camera: how financial models shape the markets', analysing the link between theory and practice. He distinguishes between forms of "performativity", where "Barnesian performativity" as strongest form describes practice being shaped along the lines of theory. The opposing view is "counter- performativity" where practice constitutes other forms than those suggested by theory. A good example of counter- performativity through excluding cognitive limitations from theory is the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
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