Oil, electricity and Taleb’s ‚Black Swan‘

Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)

• Introduction
• Methodological framework and definitions
  • The 'Black Swan' a concept and its application
  • How to measure ‘Black Swan' impact - energy prices as an indicator
  • A critique of Energy outlooks - predictions in the light of ‘Black Swans'
• Analysis The 'Black Swan' in the history of oil and electricity
  • Oil a global commodity in turbulent times
    • 1945-1970 - A phase of stability
    • The oil shock and how it changed the world
    • The Iran Crisis
    • The 1986 oil price collapse
    • The late 80s, the demise of Communism and the first Gulf Crisis
    • 9/11 and its aftermath
  • Electricity - a versatile necessity in times of crisis
    • The role of electricity prices
    • The California Energy Crisis
    • The 2008 Central Asia Energy crisis
    • The 2011 Tsunami
• Is protection possible? Discussion and outline of risk mitigation measures
• Summary and Conclusion

Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)

This paper aims to analyze the impact of “Black Swan” events on the energy industry, focusing on oil and electricity. It explores the concept of “Black Swans” as unexpected and high-impact events, particularly in their negative manifestations. The paper critically examines the ability of current strategic prediction models in the energy sector to account for these events. Furthermore, it delves into historical occurrences to illustrate how “Black Swans” have influenced the past and assesses potential methods to mitigate their impact in the future.

• The “Black Swan” concept and its application in energy
• Historical examples of “Black Swan” events in the oil and electricity industries
• Limitations of current energy prediction models
• Risk mitigation measures and strategies for managing “Black Swan” events
• The importance of understanding and preparing for unpredictable events in energy markets

Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)

• Introduction: This chapter introduces the concept of "Black Swan" events and their relevance to the energy industry. It emphasizes the significance of understanding and mitigating risks associated with unpredictable events in a world increasingly reliant on energy. It also outlines the paper's objectives, methodology, and scope.
• Methodological framework and definitions: This chapter defines the "Black Swan" concept as popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, highlighting its characteristics and potential impact. It discusses the use of energy prices as an indicator to measure the impact of "Black Swans," critically examining current energy outlooks and their limitations in predicting these events.
• Analysis The 'Black Swan' in the history of oil and electricity: This chapter analyzes historical occurrences in the oil and electricity industries to demonstrate the impact of "Black Swans." It covers key events such as the oil shocks, the Iran Crisis, the 1986 oil price collapse, the late 80s and early 90s conflicts, and the 9/11 attacks in relation to the oil market. It also explores the California energy crisis, the 2008 Central Asia energy crisis, and the 2011 Tsunami in the context of the electricity sector.

Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)

This paper focuses on the concept of “Black Swan” events, their impact on the energy sector, particularly oil and electricity, and the limitations of existing prediction models. It highlights the importance of understanding and mitigating risks associated with unforeseen events in energy markets. Key concepts include “Black Swan” theory, energy prices, risk management, and energy policy.