Masterarbeit, 2013
72 Seiten, Note: 1,7
1. Introduction
1.1. Note on quotations
2. History
2.1. The path to the classical gold standard
2.2. The classical gold standard
2.3. The gold exchange standard
2.4. Bretton Woods
2.5. The end of the gold standard
3. Theory & Renaissance
3.1. The price-specie flow mechanism and the balance of trade
3.2. The price-specie flow mechanism under the gold standard
3.3. Flows of gold and gold obligations
3.4. Commodity money supply without central banks
3.5. Costs of a return to a gold standard
3.6. Fractional reserve banking
3.7. Critique on the gold standard
3.8. Alternatives to the gold standard
4. Conclusion
A. Global gold reserve data
B. Global money supply
B.1. United States
B.2. United Kingdom
B.3. Euro zone
B.4. Japan
B.5. India
B.6. China
C. Monetary stability
This thesis examines the theoretical and historical foundations of the gold standard, particularly in the context of calls for a return to commodity money following the global financial crisis of 2007/2008. It investigates whether a gold-backed monetary system remains a viable or desirable alternative to the existing fiat money framework by evaluating historical performance and the economic challenges inherent in a potential transition.
3.1. The price-specie flow mechanism and the balance of trade
The most fundamental theory of gold-backed money is the price-specie flow mechanism described by Hume (1752). He claims, that the economical evolution of a country is not supported, but suppressed by the Mercantilists ideology of prohibited exports. The foundation of Hume’s idea is the quantity theory of money that describes a direct proportional relationship between the supply of money and the price level.
The price-specie flow mechanism ensures that in the long run no country will experience an infinite import or export surplus. If a country exports commodities to another country, there will be a gold outflow from the importing country to the exporting country. The increased amount of gold in the exporting country leads to an inflation and therefore an increase in prices. As the exporting country’s commodities become more expensive while the importing country simultaneously experiences a deflation caused by the reduced amount of gold, the demand for these imported commodities declines. The deflation in the former importing country leads to a reduction of costs for the production of commodities. These cheaper commodities are attractive for the former exporting country which starts to import them. Another gold outflow appears from the former exporting country back to the former importing country, as both switched their roles.
1. Introduction: Presents the motivation for the thesis following the 2007/2008 financial crisis and introduces the debate regarding a return to gold-backed currency.
2. History: Provides a chronological overview of the three major historical phases of the gold standard, ranging from the classical period to the Bretton Woods system.
3. Theory & Renaissance: Analyzes the theoretical mechanics of gold standards, the challenges of implementing 100% reserves, and the critique of current fiat systems.
4. Conclusion: Summarizes the findings, arguing that a return to the gold standard is highly unlikely and potentially destabilizing, ultimately supporting the current fiat system as a pragmatic compromise.
Gold Standard, Commodity Money, Fiat Money, Bretton Woods, Price-Specie Flow Mechanism, Inflation, Deflation, Monetary Supply, Free Banking, Central Banks, Gold Reserves, Economic Growth, Financial Crisis, Currency Reform, Monetary Policy
The work explores the historical existence of the gold standard and evaluates the theoretical arguments for and against a potential relaunch of gold-backed money in the modern era.
The thesis covers the evolution of monetary history, the price-specie flow mechanism, the economic feasibility of returning to gold reserves, and the risks associated with fiat versus commodity money.
The research investigates whether a return to a gold-backed currency system is a viable solution to the economic instabilities observed in current fiat money systems.
The thesis utilizes a historical overview combined with an economic analysis of monetary data and theoretical frameworks derived from authors like Hume, Keynes, and Rothbard.
The main section details the history of the gold standard, theoretical models like the price-specie flow mechanism, and critical calculations regarding the costs and inflationary effects of a transition to gold-backed reserves.
Essential keywords include Gold Standard, Commodity Money, Fiat Money, Bretton Woods, Inflation, Deflation, Monetary Supply, and Free Banking.
The author discusses the model described by Rothbard, noting that while it works in theory, its practical implementation faces insurmountable obstacles, such as the necessity for global commitment and the risk of massive inflation.
The author concludes that such a move would likely trigger severe economic crises, partly because the total global gold supply is insufficient to back current money supplies without causing extreme deflation or inflationary shocks.
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