Art Prices as Business Cycle Indicator

Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Theoretical background
  • 2.1 Art as an investment object
    • 2.1.1 Integration of art as an asset into investment portfolios
    • 2.1.2 Art market composition and key players in the global art trade
  • 2.2 Primary features of business cycle
    • 2.2.1 Moving from a stationary to a booming economy
    • 2.2.2 Looming recession and financial crises
  • 2.3 Can prices at art auctions be used to predict shifts in the business cycle?
    • 2.3.1 Classical versus growth cycle analysis
    • 2.3.2 Art prices as business cycle indicator: direction and timing
• 3. Methodology
  • 3.1 Data and summary statistics
  • 3.2 Analysis of stationarity and data filtering
    • 3.2.1 Stationarity - Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test
    • 3.2.2 Applying the Hodrick Prescott filter
  • 3.3 Cross-correlation with GDP
  • 3.4 Granger Causality and analysis of stability
    • 3.4.1 Granger Causality
    • 3.4.2 Analysis of stability

Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)

This master thesis investigates the potential of art prices at auctions as a predictor of shifts in the business cycle. The study aims to explore the theoretical foundation for using art as an investment object, analyze the key features of business cycles, and ultimately examine if art prices can reliably indicate upcoming changes in the economic climate.

• Art as an investment asset
• Key features of business cycles
• Art prices as a business cycle indicator
• Data analysis of art market data and GDP
• Granger causality and stability analysis

Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)

Chapter 1 introduces the research question, outlining the potential of art prices as a business cycle indicator. Chapter 2 delves into the theoretical framework, exploring the role of art as an investment asset, outlining the key features of business cycles, and discussing the potential for utilizing art prices to predict economic shifts. Chapter 3 details the methodology employed, including data selection, analysis of stationarity and data filtering, cross-correlation with GDP, and Granger causality analysis.

Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)

The main keywords and focus topics of this work are: art market, art as an investment asset, business cycle analysis, art prices, GDP, Granger causality, stationarity, Hodrick Prescott filter, data analysis.