Explaining the gold price after the Bretton Woods Agreement using independent variables. An ARIMA model approach

Table of Contents

• Chapter 1 - Introduction
  • 1.1 Background
  • 1.2 Gold is different
  • 1.3 The gold price since the end of Bretton Woods
  • 1.4 Research questions
• Chapter 2 - Literature Review and Theory
  • 2.1 Theoretical framework: Explaining the movements of the gold price
  • 2.2 Empirical findings: Independent variables correlating with the gold price
  • 2.3 Conclusion
• Chapter 3 - Data and Methods
  • 3.1 The ARIMA model
  • 3.2 Assumptions of an ARIMA model
  • 3.3 Data collection and sources
  • 3.4 Defining an ARIMA model to fit the gold price
  • 3.5 Evaluation of the ARIMA model
  • 3.6 Conclusion
• Chapter 4 - Analysis and Results
  • 4.1 Data description
  • 4.2 The best fitting ARIMA model
  • 4.3 ARIMA model fit during normal times and crises
  • 4.4 Explaining divergences of the model fit during normal times and crises
  • 4.5 Conclusion
• Chapter 5 - Discussion and Conclusions
  • 5.1 Summary
  • 5.2 Implications
  • 5.3 Limitations
  • 5.4 Direction for Future Research
  • 5.5 Reflections

Objectives and Key Themes

This dissertation aims to investigate the factors driving the gold price after the Bretton Woods Agreement by applying an ARIMA model. The study utilizes historical data to identify and quantify the impact of various independent variables on the gold price.

• The gold price dynamics after the Bretton Woods Agreement
• Identifying independent variables that influence the gold price
• Applying an ARIMA model to forecast the gold price
• Evaluating the model's performance during normal times and economic crises
• Exploring the implications of the findings for investors and policymakers

Chapter Summaries

Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the research topic, highlighting the significance of gold in the global financial system and the unique characteristics that differentiate it from other assets. It examines the gold price behavior since the end of the Bretton Woods system and outlines the research questions that guide the study.

Chapter 2 presents a comprehensive literature review, exploring existing theoretical frameworks for explaining gold price movements. It examines previous empirical studies that have identified independent variables correlating with the gold price and discusses their findings.

Chapter 3 delves into the methodology employed in the research, explaining the ARIMA model and its assumptions. It details the data collection process, sources used, and the steps involved in defining and evaluating the ARIMA model to fit the gold price.

Chapter 4 presents the results of the analysis, including a description of the data, the best-fitting ARIMA model, and its performance during different economic conditions. The chapter analyzes the model's fit during both normal times and economic crises, exploring the factors that contribute to divergences in its performance.

Keywords

The core concepts and themes explored in this dissertation include: gold price, Bretton Woods Agreement, ARIMA model, independent variables, financial markets, economic crises, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, global economic uncertainty, forecasting, and investment strategies.