Bachelorarbeit, 2014
32 Seiten, Note: 2
This thesis examines the potential existence of a real estate bubble in Berlin, focusing on the significant price increase in residential properties between 2007 and 2013. The main objective is to analyze the factors influencing housing demand and determine whether the price surge is primarily driven by speculative market behavior or by fundamental economic factors.
This research focuses on the following key areas: real estate, housing market, bubble, Berlin, demand determinants, speculative behavior, fundamental factors, empirical analysis, price trends.
While prices increased by 73% between 2007 and 2013, empirical analysis suggests the surge was largely driven by fundamental factors like income growth and interest rates, though speculative risks remain a concern for risk-averse investors.
Key determinants include credit supply, demographic shifts, economic growth, long-term interest rates, monetary policy, and expectations of future price developments.
The thesis specifically investigates residential properties because housing price dynamics are often local phenomena that can signal broader economic shifts before expanding to other sectors.
Real long-term interest rates and monetary policy are critical factors; lower rates generally increase demand for credit, thereby pushing up property prices.
Fundamental factors refer to non-speculative drivers like population growth and actual income increases, which justify a price rise as opposed to a bubble driven purely by market hype.
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