Masterarbeit, 2015
107 Seiten, Note: 10,0
This study aims to explore how participants in the natural gas shipping industry can utilize scenario analysis to make informed strategic decisions amidst a complex and uncertain future. It investigates how this industry, heavily impacted by global forces and a dynamic business environment, can plan for the future by analyzing various potential scenarios.
The study revolves around the key concepts of scenario planning, global energy supply and demand, natural gas shipping, strategic decision-making, and economic models. It explores the impact of global uncertainty on the natural gas shipping industry and aims to provide insights into how participants can navigate this challenging business environment through informed strategic planning.
It links energy production with global consuming nations. Natural gas supply is predicted to grow by 1.9% annually until 2035, driving the demand for LNG vessels.
The industry is highly technologized and investment-intense, facing complex uncertainties from political, economic, and environmental sources.
It involves modeling a complex world into single narratives (Growth, Sustainability, Volatility) to help market participants prepare for various future possibilities.
The study presents Scenario 1: The Growth Scenario, Scenario 2: The Sustainability Scenario, and Scenario 3: The Volatility Scenario.
Dynamics from financial crises, legislative changes, substitution of energy products, and political discord in providing countries all impact firm strategies.
The study recommends scenario planning and the application of economic models, including a demand equation for natural gas ships, to adapt to changing circumstances.
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