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55 Seiten, Note: 2,4
2. Theoretical Framework
2.1 Fundamental Fabrication Processes
2.2 3D Printing
2.2.1 Development Process
2.2.2 Additive Manufacturing Technologies
184.108.40.206 3D Print with Powder
220.127.116.11 Laser Cladding
2.3 Scenario Technique
2.3.3 The Scenario Funnel
2.3.4 Scenario Analysis Procedure
18.104.22.168 Scenario Preparation
22.214.171.124 Scenario Field Analysis
126.96.36.199 Scenario Prognostic
188.8.131.52 Scenario Development
184.108.40.206 Scenario Transfer
3. Execution of the Scenario Analysis
3.1 Scenario Preparation
3.2 Scenario Field Analysis
3.2.1 Directlnfluence Analysis
3.2.2 Relevance Analysis
3.2.3 Selection of Key Factors
3.3 Scenario Prognostic
3.3.1 Price Model
3.3.2 Use Time of Objects
3.3.3 Surface Quality
3.3.4 Willingness to go with new Technology
3.3.5 Material Strength
3.3.6 Intellectual Property
3.3.7 Part Complexity
3.3.9 Process Cost
3.3.10 New Materials
3.3.11 Material Costs
3.3.13 Energy Use
3.3.15 Quality Assurance System
4. Scenario Development
4.1 Scenario Characterizations
4.1.1 Scenario "Sustainable disruptiveness in avivid competition”
4.1.2 Scenario "Technological recognition”
5. Scenario Transfer
5.1 Contrasting Scenario "Sustainable disruptiveness in a vivid competition"
5.2 Contrasting Scenario "Technological recognition"
Appendix Al Influence Matrix
Appendix A2 Relevance Matrix
Appendix A3 System-Grid
Appendix B1 Cross-Impact-Matrix
Appendix B2 Cross-Impact-Matrix
3D printing technology recently receives much attention in mass media. While it is sometimes entitled as a technology that can bring a third industrial revolution it is not to deny that it will have huge influence on traditional manufacturing. Furthermore this technology comes along with a huge disruptive character since it nowadays demonstrates its potential for the future of consumers. The dissemination of personal 3D printers and further 3D printing technologies involves a variety of opportunities and challenges. This thesis analyses the implications of 3D printing technologies on the B- to-C market focusing on possible future market constellations and conflict situations using the instrument of scenario technique in order to think ahead the future of the depicted area.
KEYWORDS: (3D printing, Additive Manufacturing, Scenario Analysis, B-to-C)
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 1 Three types of fundamental fabrication processes
Figure 2 Development Process
Figure 3 Scenario Funnel
Figure 4 Five Phases/Milestones according to Gausemeier
Figure 5 Field of conception according to Gausemeier
Figure 6 Influence Analysis Results
Figure 7 Relevance Analysis Results
Figure 8 Consistentprojections Scenario 1
Figure 9 Consistentprojections Scenario 2
Over the last centuries the invention of one technology is regarded as one of the most important events that moved human mankind into the modern era. This technology was the printing press. This revolutionary technology was the key to open the door to a scientific revolution throughout the Renaissance, Reformation and the Age of Enlightenment. Printing evolved over years enabling mass communication the first time ever in human history. Nowadays nearly every household owns a printer and as a matter of fact the Internet, which allows us to quickly transfer information, is replacing the need for centralized printing plants.
Yet there is a revolutionary development in printing that has the potential to be as influential and innovative as the printing press was centuries ago. This technology is called 3D printing, also known as Additive Manufacturing or Rapid Prototyping. In fact the technology was invented in the early 1980’s but first remained to be only a marginal technology. Until today a multitude of new 3D printing technologies were introduced constantly. With the expiration of a key patent in 2009 the market was opened for desktop 3D printers bringing consumer level 3D printers on the market.
Looking closely at both inventions, the printing press and nowadays the 3D printing, then it is obvious that multiple commonalities exist. As 3D printing today is often praised as the 2nd, 3rd and, sometimes 4th Industrial Revolution and increasingly gains more attention from mass media, there is yet no doubt that 3D printing has a big say in the industrial sector. It also cannot be denied that this technology has a huge disruptive character as it recently demonstrates its potential for the future of consumers. The commonalities are apparent: Both technologies touch a variety of different sectors and industries; have a revolutionary and disruptive character, and possess the ability to have game-changing and global effects in social, economic and environmental terms.
The subject of 3D printing is well and truly up-to-the-minute and might also be a starting point of a new industrial era with worldwide effects. The general topic of 3D printing is obviously to broad to cover in one thesis. Therefore this thesis aims at the future of 3D printing in the B-to-C Market. These boundaries allow having a close look at the influencing factors that will be decisive for market constellations, the shift between affected economic actors and the overall development. Examining 3D printing from a completely new perspective, the findings of this thesis will provide theoretical benefits, as the desired outcome is to conduct a scenario analysis with subsequently indicating possible future market constellations in the B-to-C market. By this means this thesis shows an in-depth approach how to answer the questions of which factors are decisive for future market constellations in the B-to-C Market and which conflict situations between economic actors will arise and which consequences they have.
The entirety of manufacturing processes can be divided into three classes. Therefore a manufacturing process can be subtractive, formative or additive. Subtractive manufacturing can be described as the process of beginning with a single block of solid material, which is larger than the size of the desired object. The next step consists of selectively removing everything that is not required for the final shape. This can be done in various forms such as milling, turning, drilling, planning, sawing, grinding, EDM, laser cutting and water-jet cutting. In contrast a formative process consists of applying mechanical forces or restricting forms on material in order to create the final shape of the object. Formative manufacturing processes are e.g. bending, forging, electromagnetic forming and plastic injection molding. Lastly the additive manufacturing process can be seen as the reverse to subtractive manufacturing as it is a process of creating physical objects by fusing materials layer by layer in sequence through either light, heat or chemicals. The three different types of fabrication processes are illustrated in figure 1.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 1 Three types offundamental fabrication processes
In practice the term "Additive Manufacturing” is often also titled as "Generative Manufacturing” or "Rapid Technology”. In addition the terminology differs by the aim of the procedure. For the manufacturing of tools the term "Rapid Tooling” is used as well as the production of prototypes is titled as "Rapid Prototyping”. Additionally for the production of end products a number of numerous other terms has been established, such as "Rapid Manufacturing”, "Digital Fabrication”, "E-manufacturing”, "Digital Manufacturing” or "Direct Manufacturing”.
At least the term "3D printing” is increasingly used as a synonym for the mentioned expressions and collective term for production processes that built objects layer by layer. As a consequence the term "3D printing” is subsequently used throughout the thesis.
3D printing is a manufacturing technology for the fast and in relation to other fabrication technologies cheap process for the creation of models, patterns, prototypes, tools, and end products. Basis and starting point for 3D printing are CAD models. This is the reason why this technology is also called "digital fabrication”, as the existence of the digital model is the prerequisite for production. CAD models are created through CAD software or a scan of an existing artifact and give the designer the chance to improve the quality of the design, communications through documentation, and to create a database for manufacturing. At the end of the CAD process stands the CAD file in form of an electronic file. This file is generated in CAD software and stored in the STL format. It has to take into account the peculiarities of the desired object and sometimes also use of the respective technology. Here care is extremely important, since the accuracy of the final product is not only dependent on the settings and possibilities from the different additive production machines, but also from the creation of the virtual layers in the CAD file. After that specialized software slices this model into crosssectional layers, creating a computer file that is finally sent to the 3D printer. Then the AM process begins with forming each layer via the selective placement or forming of material. This process can be imagined with the picture of a conventional inkjet printer that infinitely moves from left to right over a page, adding layers of material on top until the printed letters become 3D objects. Depending on the process various preparations are necessary. These can e.g. include the setting of the corresponding parameters and as well as the selection and placing of the right material.
Subsequent the actual manufacturing of the product takes place with respectively seen different lead times depending on the technology used. After the production is completed some technologies require the removal of excess or supporting material. The effort regarding the post processing differs between the technologies and is subject to the extent of the qualitative characteristics of the desired product. Looking at the production process as a whole it is important to be aware of the fact that 3D printing processes possess their own process steps, whose modifications and adaptions require the expertise of the designers, engineers and production planners.
Despite the manifold developments of generative technologies in the past years and the increasing number of new technologies and applications, all current generative technologies have the basic principle of the laminar structure in common. Additive manufacturing has, like all conventional technologies, their specifics in terms of their product development and production process. The product development, production phases and most important characteristics along the various 3D printing technologies are summarized in figure 2.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 2 Development Process
In the following the main features of 3D printing technologies summarized:
- Construction process of the individual layers is carried out directly from the CAD model
- Use of tools cease to exist
- Mechanical properties are generated during the process
- Data records can be built in every imaginable orientation
- Surface Tessellation Language (STL) as standard data format for all machines
In the following the different characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of additive manufacturing technologies are described.
The Powder-binder method hardens the individual layers of a model selectively by injecting a liquid binder in a powder bed. Similar to an inkjet printer devices usually have multiple print heads, which apply the binder in small doses. By this operation the powder grains crystallize and the layers of the work piece are bonded. There is also the possibility to color the binder in order to enable the production if multicolored 3D models. After the completion of the construction process the model has to be taken out of the powder bed and can be refined with epoxy resin (infiltration). The remaining, non-hardened powder is placed back into the cartridge and can be used for new printing processes.
This 3D printing process is compared to other technologies very inexpensive and can create models in high speed. In addition, there is the possibility to make full-colored pieces. Since the process is carried out without heat, both energy costs and the risk of accidents can be reduced. Moreover it should be noted that this technology makes it possible to create non-deformable parts. However, a post-processing of the work piece is required. To prevent brittleness, parts are cleaned up after the printing process and then finished with epoxy resin. The technology has its deficits in the areas of capacity and level of detail.
At the selective laser sintering the individual layers of a structure are sintered, which means that a laser fuses the individual particles of material together at the surface. Different materials can be used such as thermoplastics, metals, ceramics or sand. In the process the laser brings the individual powder elements near their melting temperature. After completing a layer the building platform is lowered by the thickness of each layer. A new layer of powder is distributed from the material reservoir and the process is repeated for the next layer. Since the work piece is made in a powder bed this method needs no support material. The fact that, unlike the Stereolitographie described in point 7, powder serves as a base material has the consequence that the level of detail is limited to the size of the individual material grains.
In addition the machine should previously calculate the material changes that occur due to the cooling procedure in order to compensate e.g. shrinking processes. Depending on the size of the powder particles, the components show a rough surface. To counteract these properties the parts are soaked in liquid copper, resin or smoothed by bead blasting after the production process. Advantageous are the wide choice of materials with SLS and the high thermal and mechanical strength. Thus this method is also qualified for the production of end products.
In contrast to the similar SLS process the building material in SLM is not sintered but completely melted and applied at the machining point of the work piece. The hardening of the material is carried out with the cooling process. Here again the work piece is created layer by layer by lowering the platform by the thickness of each layer. With SLM it is possible to achieve a hundred percent density of the object because it offers the ability to establish a crack- and pore-free structure. As with the SLS technology the shrinking process caused by cooling has to be corrected by calculations of the machine. Suitable materials are e.g. tool- or stainless steel, aluminum, titanium, plastics or ceramics. As with the SLS method no supporting material during the production is required. In addition the level of detail is limited by the size of each powder crystal, which can affect the final strength. Due to the high density it is possible to achieve objects that are qualitatively comparable to conventionally casted parts.
In the process of Electron Beam Melting an electron beam layer by layer sinters metal powder. This happens in a vacuum chamber. This method is commercialized since 2001 and depicts an alternative to SLS. Instead of a laser an electron beam is used, which provides a high flexibility and ensures also precise control of the temperature of the installation space. By about thousand degrees Celsius, the melting rate is higher than of the laser-based procedures.
The company Stratasys introduced the FDM method. In contrast to laser-based technologies the material is melted without laser or electron beams. The material basis uses plastics and resins, which are wire-shaped wound on a spool. These are liquefied through a heated nozzle and applied in layers directly onto a building platform. The print head can move exactly along the horizontal and vertical dimension according to the exact building codes of the object. After the application of the plastic the material hardens immediately due to the fact that that the materials are heated only just below the melting point. After completing a layer the building platform is lowered by the thickness of the layer and the next level is fused.
Since only plastics and resins are used as materials the stability of the objects is lower than in injection molding components. Therefore FDM is more suitable for the production of prototypes and models. The FDM method is one of the most cost- effective technologies. However individual layers in the products are usually clearly visible. In case of withstanding parts supporting material has to be used. These are generated automatically by the system. Here the supports are made of a brittle material and can be easily removed from the building project without any damage.
The laser cladding procedure or also designated as "cladding” melts and transfers the material directly, locally and layer by layer on the work piece. In contrast to SLS and SLM no powder bed is necessary as the material is fed from a container. A laser effects the liquefaction of the material. As this technical procedure is used in a number of similar methods, "cladding” describes a group of technologies such as Direct Metal Deposition (DMD), Laser Engineered Net Shape (Lens) or Laser Metal Forming (LMF). The choice of materials ranges from various metals to ceramics.
Through a good microstructure a high density is achieved in the components. In addition the created objects have good mechanical properties and a high resilience. Furthermore the technology can be used for the repair of metal tools where metal layers are applied to the existing tools.
Multi-Jet-Modeling applies photosensitive materials from a container layer by layer from a container. The materials are hardened by an ultraviolet lamp. The material is applied on the construction area by means of a print head, which is comparable to an inkjet printer. Subsequently the current layer is smoothed with a roller and irradiated with UV light. In the next step the building platform is lowered and the process is repeated for the next layer. Acrylic photopolymer is used as building material. During the production process the necessary support structures for overhanging parts are manufactured in parallel by a second pressure nozzle in form of thermoplastic. Thermoplastic has the advantage that it can be easily removed after the completion of the production process by heating as it has wax-like properties.
The resolution of the machine is relatively high and produces detailed models with a very good surface finish. This level of detail is possible by the small size of the individual drops of material. However, a disadvantage is the speed from 6.5 mm/h in the vertical direction, which is relatively low.
In the stereo lithography approach a laser beam hardens the individual cross sections of the structure from a bath of liquid construction material. Then the building platform is lowered to the respective layer thickness. Liquid construction material from the bath is wiped back on the previously hardened layer with a wiper. The laser again hardens the individual cross sections of the structure while it is guided by a plurality of movable mirrors to the hardening points.
The implementation of the process of hardening liquid materials by polymerizing describes the basic principle of stereo lithography and is one of the oldest rapid prototyping methods. Different companies use different methods for the polymerization process. While some companies use lamps and other laser as a light source, different concepts were patented for the process.
In order to protect the work pieces from floating in the polymer bath they are fastened by means of support structures. The support structures have to be manually removed after the construction process. The load capacity of the parts is rather low compared to other methods. Additionally the material costs are high but nevertheless the stereo lithography method can produce extremely smooth and highly detailed surfaces. As the technology has been used for several decades one can resort to a very extensive know-how for this procedure.
The company Objet that nowadays is counted among the company Stratasys designed the Polyjet process. This process is very similar to the Multi-Jet-Modeling as the material is sprayed using print heads and hardened by a UV lamp. In contrast to MultiJet-Modeling the lamp is carried directly with the print heads, polymerizing the construction material immediately after application to the building structure. The Polyjet devices are equipped with two or more print heads. One is used for the support material, the other for different materials. The PolyJet method offers the possibility to manufacture the components at the same time from various materials. In addition the technology offers good structures and surfaces and low wall thicknesses. The support material can be easily removed with water or washed within components.
The process of Laminated Object Modeling works with films that are wound on reels. These material films are coated with adhesive and are laminated in layers on the work piece. The bonding of the layers can be achieved either by the polymerization of the films or galvanically. Subsequent the individual layers along the desired contours are cut. Depending on the manufacturer the cutting is done by a knife, a hot wire or using a laser. For the building material, all materials, which can be prepared as a film, can be used. These include e.g. paper, plastics, aluminum and ceramic. LOM requires no support structures. Nevertheless a post-processing has to be carried out in order to remove the excess film residues that surround the work piece. Furthermore this method causes waste in form of remnants of the material webs. LOM is the oldest rapid prototyping method and was invented in 1985. Due to the possibility to use e.g. paper as a material and the relatively seen simple technique makes LOM one of the least expensive options for rapid prototyping.
Film Transfer Imaging solidifies the building material by the use of an image projection system. In the first step the material must be pre-assembled on a carrier film. Subsequently the material film on the transfer ribbon hardens through exposure. Only the area that depicts the particular layer of the work piece is exposed. The unexposed material lying outside the contours of the object to be created and the rest of the film are removed from the machine after completion of the construction process and conveyed back into the printer cartridge. As with stereo lithography, light responsive photopolymers serve as material basis. With FTI the creation of high-quality surfaces with a high level of detail are possible. The support material, which is also created during the exposure process, must be removed after construction.
Digital Light Processing works very similar to the FTI method. The only major difference is that the objects are built with the use of a liquid material pool instead of films. A Digital Light Processor hardens the layers, which projects the individual layers as a bitmap on building platform. The building platform is located on top of the work piece and moves upward. The properties of the components and the materials are almost identical to FTI.
After an introduction to 3D printing technologies and the description of individual techniques current trends and developments in the field of additive manufacturing are discussed as a necessary prerequisite for the scenario analysis in chapter 3. Currently numerous advances and changes take place, such as the expiry of important patents, the overcoming of legal challenges and the development of new industry standards. New companies are entering the market, experimenting with new applications and processes, existing companies strengthen their power through mergers and acquisitions (Stratasys, 3D Systems), and new business models appear as 3D printing provides a fertile ground for producers, service contractors, and designers along multiple industries. By offering 3D printing technology in the low-price segment end users are addressed directly for the first time and completely new markets are opened. While it is still not assessable where this technology will develop and how big the industry one day will be, an enormous atmosphere of departure dominates through the 3D printing sphere.
A driving factor for the development of various methods is the expiry of different basic patents. In addition to the already expired patent for the FDM process, patents for further processes will follow. This speeds up the competition and increases the pressure on producers in additive manufacturing machines enormously. Furthermore the market leaders will try to strengthen their market position through high investments in research and development to patent new methods. This inevitably leads to lower prices because the offer will increase by more entrants. Yet the producers are not the only affected party in this quickening competition. Due to the disruptive character and enormous impact along multiple industries 3D printing has the power to alter the general framework of all affected parties from the end consumer over the designer to the producer.
According to the corporate- and crisis counselor Ute von Reibnitz a scenario is "the description of a future situation and the development or demonstration of the path that ushers from today into the future. Scenario method is defined as a planning technique, that usually develops two diverging but internally consistent scenarios (visions) from which consequences for a company, region, or an individual are derived”. It should be emphasized that a scenario never claims to be an accurate prediction of the future but simply a selection of possible characteristics.
Two important elements of the scenario methodology are highlighted in Gausemeier’s definition. According to him scenarios are systematically developed visions of the future whose development are based on the two basic principles of "networked thinking” and "multiple future”.
- Networked thinking: Companies are part of an overall system and therefore exposed to a complex web of influence factors. This network is developing steadily as a matter of fact of ongoing globalization and technological development. As a consequence interactions between e.g. separated functional areas or market segments increasingly play a significant role and therefore have to be included in the considerations of management processes.
- Multiple future: This means that companies have to take alternative development possibilities into account due to the heavy predictability of the future.
Herman Kahn who developed strategic military games in the early 50’s to train commanders of the American army coined the term "scenario”. Originally the term comes from the Italian theater. It means as much as summary or synopsis of a play and gives an overview over the progress of the plot. Kahn’s scenarios on the contrary were descriptions of various battlefield situations where military planners had to operate the most appropriate way possible to ensure victory. These military future hypotheses had predominantly a visionary character. Therefore it did not matter how the conditions were reached or how they evolved from the present. Later Herman Kahn transcribed the scenario principle of the military into economic language. In 1961 Kahn along a team of futurologists and strategists founded the Hudson Institute. The Hudson Institute conducted diverse projects for both public and private organizations using hypothetical scenarios, game theory and system analysis.
For company’s strategic planning it was common and adequate until the early 1970’s to work with classical predictions. These predictions were sufficient as uninterrupted growth and minor changes since the 1950’s were the case. Only through the oil crisis and its economic effects scenario technique was discovered again. The Shell group was a pioneer in scenario technique as they increasingly tried to involve qualitative issues and alternatives in their planning about a year prior to the crisis. After the oil crisis it was popular to create scenarios. The first users were companies from the most affected branches of the oil crisis, namely oil, chemical and automotive companies .
The development of alternative scenarios can be illustrated by the funnel model. (See figure 3)
illustration not visible in this excerpt
The top of the funnel symbolizes the present. The spread of the funnel represents the increasing complexity and uncertainty as the time marches on. The current situation shows factors that have been identified, which affect the industry. They have a particular structure that can be detected and whose influences are used for current activities. If those factors are projected into the future small alterations may take place but not in a significantly manner. This is true for a short period of two to three years. In an extensive extrapolation of the environment situation it is impossible at a certain point in time to predict how this situation develops, which new factors occur and which impact they will have.
If the funnel is cut at a defined point in time all theoretically possible future situations lay on the sectional area of the funnel. Figure 2 shows the most typical scenario types:
- Trend scenario: With a continuation of current trends into the future a trend scenario develops. It is assumed that the current course continues straight without major changes. This so-called trend extrapolation makes only sense for short forecast periods.
- Extreme scenarios: Extreme scenarios can be found at the edges of the funnel cross section. In literature the terms "best-case” and "worst-case-scenario” are also common. Though these terms obviously have a highly judgmental character. It is always the subjective sense of the observer whether a scenario proceeds from a positive or a negative state especially considering that in intense observation bad adjudged future images may offer chances or conversely positive adjudged future images may include hidden dangers. To avoid the misconception that extreme scenarios are exaggerations and thus implausible future alternatives due to their term and location on the funnel cross section it is to mention that any element inside the circle has its right to exist as possible shape of the future.
The model in figure 3 shows three different scenarios. In fact it is possible to create a number of futures to a particular problem. The more scenarios are generated complexity and potential confusion increases but after all the purpose of scenario analysis is to implement the conclusions drawn into a company’s strategic planning.
The scenario method follows a defined phase diagram. In literature this scheme is defined differently depending on the author. While some work e.g. with eight phases, others rely on only five phases. Basis for this thesis is the five phases model from Jürgen Gausemeier. Figure 4 shows the five phases according to Gausemeier, their underlying tasks and intended results.
 Electrical discharge machining is a manufacturing process where a desired shape is obtained using electrical discharges
 Chua, Leong, Lim (2010), p. 26
 Computer-aided design describes the use of computer systems to assist in the creation, modification, analysis, or optimization of a design
 Surface Tessellation Language - current standard format
 Own Illustration
 See Fastermann (2012), pp. 117-118 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Fastermann (2012), pp. 118-119 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Fastermann (2012), p. 119 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Fastermann (2012), p. 120 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Fastermann (2012), p. 120 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Gebhardt (2007), p. 196 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Fastermann (2012), pp. 120-121 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Fastermann (2012), pp. 120-121 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Gebhardt (2007), pp. 113-115 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Fastermann (2012), pp. 121-122 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Gebhardt (2007), p. 80 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Fastermann (2012), p. 122 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Fastermann (2012), pp. 123-124 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Fastermann (2012), p. 124 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Fastermann (2012), pp. 122-123; Gebhardt (2007), pp. 117-118 (translation by Jens Lammert
 See Von Reibnitz (1991), p. 14 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Gausemeier (2014), p. 45 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Reibnitz (1991), p. 187 (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See Reibnitz (1991) p. 185f (translation by Jens Lammert)
 See www.waldwissen.de
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