Bachelorarbeit, 2016
41 Seiten, Note: 80%
1. INTRODUCTION
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
3. METHODOLOGY
4. EMPIRICAL RESULTS
5. DISCUSSION
6. CONCLUSION
This study aims to provide a comparative analysis of general government current expenditure shares across developed and developing countries, investigating patterns of optimality and sub-optimality, and their relationship with economic growth and institutional factors.
Wagner’s Law
Wagner’s (1883) law of increasing state activity is a popular theory of government expenditure. The theory predicts that as an economy grows, the government expands its role, and hence government size relative to the size of the economy grows as well. As explained by Ighodaro and Oriakhi (2010:186), three main factors for increased government spending were identified by Wagner. First, administrative and protective role of government increases as the development level of the economy increases. Second, government expenditures on “cultural and welfare” would rise, particularly on education and health, with the economy’s expansion. Implicitly, he assumed that the income elasticity of demand for public goods is more than unity. Lastly, progress in technology requires of developed nations governments to undertake certain economic services for which private sector may shy away from.
To empirically investigate this link between expenditure and national income, an examination of the income elasticity of expenditure is conducted. The condition for concluding Wagner’s hypothesis to be validated is that this estimated elasticity is greater than one, with a positive coefficient sign, and is of statistical significance (Hadjimatheou, 1976; Jackson, 1980; Diba, 1982). Using both cross-sectional and time series datasets, Wagner’s law has empirically been assessed for a broad range of developed and developing countries (Magazzino, 2010:3).
1. INTRODUCTION: Presents the motivation for the study, highlighting concerns about high recurrent expenditure in various nations and outlining the primary aim of conducting a comparative technical analysis.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW: Examines theoretical and empirical literature related to determinants of government expenditure, focusing on Wagner’s Law, the Ratchet Hypothesis, and Endogenous Growth Models.
3. METHODOLOGY: Explains the empirical approach, including the definition of current expenditure, data sources from the IMF, and the econometric models used to estimate optimal shares and sub-optimality.
4. EMPIRICAL RESULTS: Presents the statistical findings regarding current expenditure shares, optimal values, and the speed of adjustment for the sampled developed and developing countries.
5. DISCUSSION: Synthesizes the empirical findings, interpreting the differences in variance between country groups and addressing the limitations regarding data availability and model complexity.
6. CONCLUSION: Summarizes the key findings, confirming that developed countries generally maintain higher current shares and suggesting directions for future research with broader samples.
Public economics, government expenditure, current expenditure, Wagner's Law, fiscal policy, economic growth, sub-optimality, developing countries, developed countries, econometric analysis, government effectiveness, endogenous growth models, expenditure composition, budgetary allocation.
The research focuses on the composition of government expenditure, specifically analyzing the patterns and optimality of public current expenditure shares in relation to total expenditure across different developmental groups.
The central themes include the structural evolution of government spending, the relationship between expenditure composition and economic growth, and the empirical measurement of "optimal" government spending levels.
The objective is to assess how current expenditure shares compare between developed and developing countries and to characterize the behavior of these shares with respect to growth-maximizing optimal levels.
The study uses econometric and statistical methods, including time-series regression models, panel data analysis, statistical t-tests for mean differences, and F-tests for variance comparison.
The main body covers theoretical frameworks like Wagner’s Law, the Ratchet Hypothesis, and Endogenous Growth Models, followed by an empirical investigation into current expenditure shares and their determinants.
The key terms include public economics, government expenditure, fiscal policy, Wagner’s Law, economic growth, and sub-optimality.
It adopts the definition provided in the IMF’s Government Financial Statistics (GFS) Manual, which includes spending on goods and services, interest payments, and current transfers such as subsidies and grants.
The study finds that government effectiveness has low explanatory power and is statistically insignificant as a driver for the observed sub-optimal current expenditure patterns in the sample assessed.
The author highlights the scarcity of expansive, consistent time-series data for government current expenditure, which limits the number of observations and the complexity of the regression models that could be implemented.
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