From Moratorium to War. Causes and Consequences of Russia's Suspension of the CFE Treaty

Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)

• Executive Summary
• Part I
• 1. Research Dimension
• 1.1 Definition of the Topic and its Importance
• 1.2 Goal of the Research
• 1.3 Theoretical Framework
• 1.4 Research Methodology
• 2. Description
• 2.1 Idea and Evolution of the Treaty
• 2.2 Irregularities and Istanbul Summit
• 2.3 Bilateral Agreement between Russia and Georgia
• 2.4 Crisis around CFE
• Part II
• 3. Consequences of the Crisis Escalation
• 3.1 Research Hypothesis
• 3.2 The Factsheet
• 3.3 Crisis Variables
• 3.3.1 Frequency of Irregularities
• 3.3.2 Capacity of Irregularities
• 3.3.3 Dimension of Irregularities
• 3.4 Impact of Variables on the Escalation of the Crisis
• 3.5 Milestone of the Escalation of the Crisis
• 4. Crisis Management Potential
• 4.1 Analysis of CFE Efficiency
• 4.1.1 Empirical Probability of Crisis Management
• 4.1.2 Practical Application of Crisis Management
• 4.2 Application of the CFE as a Probability for the Prevention of the War
• 5. From Moratorium to War
• 5.1 Hypothetical Reality
• 5.2 Cause and Effect Relation
• Part III
• 6. Research Assumptions
• 6.1 CFE as a Model
• 6.2 Russian Interpretation of European Security Architecture
• 6.3 CFE as a Cornerstone of European Security Architecture

Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)

The objective of this research is to analyze the relationship between Russia's suspension of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) and the subsequent war in Georgia in 2008. It aims to explore the potential consequences of the moratorium on CFE provisions for European security.

• The CFE Treaty as a cornerstone of European security
• The significance of the CFE in managing conventional arms control in Europe
• The potential risks associated with Russia's withdrawal from the CFE
• The role of the CFE in preventing the escalation of conflict
• The impact of the moratorium on the European security architecture

Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)

• Part I: This part establishes the research context and framework, delving into the definition, importance, and goals of the research. It explores the historical development of the CFE Treaty, highlighting key milestones, irregularities, and agreements between Russia and Georgia. The chapter concludes with an examination of the evolving crisis surrounding the CFE.
• Part II: This part focuses on the consequences of the escalating crisis, analyzing its variables, including frequency, capacity, and dimension of irregularities. It examines the impact of these variables on the escalation of the crisis and identifies key milestones in its progression. The chapter then delves into the potential for crisis management, evaluating the CFE's efficiency and exploring its practical application in preventing conflict. It concludes with an analysis of the potential link between the moratorium on the CFE and the outbreak of war in Georgia, exploring the cause-and-effect relationship.
• Part III: This part presents research assumptions, exploring the CFE as a model for arms control, examining Russia's interpretation of European security architecture, and emphasizing the treaty's role as a cornerstone of European security.

Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)

Key concepts explored in this research include the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), European security architecture, arms control, crisis management, conflict escalation, Russia's foreign policy, Georgia, moratorium, and war.