From Moratorium to War. Causes and Consequences of Russia's Suspension of the CFE Treaty

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Abbreviations

Part I

1. Research Dimension

1.1 Definition of the Topic and its Importance

1.2. Goal of the Research

1.3. Theoretical Framework

1.4. Research Methodology

2. Description

2.1. Idea and Evolution of the Treaty

2.2 Irregularities and Istanbul Summit

2.3. Bilateral Agreement between Russia and Georgia

2.4. Crisis around CFE

Part II

3. Consequences of the Crisis Escalation

3.1. Research Hypothesis

3.2. The Factsheet

3.3. Crisis Variables

3.3.1. Frequency of Irregularities

3.3.2. Capacity of Irregularities

3.3.3. Dimension of Irregularities

3.4. Impact of Variables on the Escalation of the Crisis

3.5. Milestone of the Escalation of the Crisis

4. Crisis Management Potential

4.1. Analysis of CFE Efficiency

4.1.1. Empirical Probability of Crisis Management

4.1.2. Practical Application of Crisis Management

4.2. Application of the CFE as a Probability for the Prevention of the War

5. From Moratorium to War

5.1. Hypothetical Reality

5.2. Cause and Effect Relation

Part III

6. Research Assumptions

6.1. CFE as a Model

6.2. Russian Interpretation of European Security Architecture

6.3. CFE as a Cornerstone of European Security Architecture

Research Objectives and Themes

The primary research objective is to examine the causal relationship between the Russian Federation's 2007 moratorium on the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) and the subsequent military aggression against Georgia in 2008. The study aims to evaluate whether the CFE served as an effective security mechanism and if its erosion contributed to the escalation of regional conflict.

• Linkage between the CFE moratorium and the 2008 Russia-Georgia War.
• Evaluation of military irregularities and their escalation into full-scale conflict.
• Analysis of the CFE as a "cornerstone" of European security architecture.
• Application of Mackinder's Theory of Heartland in understanding Russian foreign policy.
• Assessment of crisis management mechanisms within international frameworks.

Excerpt from the Book

Summary of Chapters

1. Research Dimension: Establishes the importance of the CFE in European security and defines the research goal to analyze the link between the 2007 moratorium and the 2008 conflict.

2. Description: Provides the historical evolution of the CFE treaty, the irregularities found at the Istanbul Summit, and the bilateral agreements between Russia and Georgia.

3. Consequences of the Crisis Escalation: Explores the hypothesis that the moratorium enabled Russian military aggression by removing key oversight, measuring the frequency, capacity, and dimension of military irregularities.

4. Crisis Management Potential: Analyzes the efficiency of CFE mechanisms compared to other international organizations and argues for the necessity of clear-cut legal provisions in managing regional crises.

5. From Moratorium to War: Concludes that the moratorium was a critical factor in shifting the status quo, thereby facilitating the conditions that led to armed conflict.

6. Research Assumptions: Examines the broader implications for the European security architecture, suggesting that the CFE violation serves as a model for future potential disturbances in the Caucasus.

Keywords

European Security, CFE Treaty, Russia-Georgia War, Moratorium, Istanbul Commitments, Conventional Weaponry, Crisis Management, Military Irregularities, Geopolitics, Theory of Heartland, NATO, Caucasus, Regional Stability, Disarmament, Armed Conflict.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the core focus of this research?

The research examines the relationship between Russia's 2007 moratorium on the CFE treaty and its military intervention in Georgia in 2008.

What are the primary thematic areas covered?

The book covers the evolution of the CFE treaty, the impact of Russian military irregularities in the Caucasus, and the effectiveness of international security mechanisms.

What is the primary research hypothesis?

The author argues that preventing Russian military aggression in 2008 would have been realistically possible if Russia had not declared a moratorium on the CFE treaty.

Which scientific methods are employed?

The study uses both quantitative and qualitative strategies, including interviews with primary sources, analysis of official government data, and comparative case studies.

What does the main body of the work analyze?

The main body evaluates the frequency, capacity, and dimension of Russian military irregularities and tests whether the CFE could have contained the escalation.

Which keywords characterize this work?

Key terms include European Security, CFE Treaty, Russia-Georgia War, Geopolitics, and Crisis Management.

Why does the author refer to the Theory of Heartland?

The theory is used to explain Russian political maneuvers and the country's strategic motivation for seeking influence and dominance over the European continent.

What role did the Gudauta military base play in the research?

Gudauta served as a critical case study of a "liquidated" base that continued to be used for military activities, illustrating the failure of verification mechanisms.

How does the author characterize the Russian moratorium on the CFE?

The moratorium is characterized as an artificial condition imposed by Russia to exert political pressure on NATO and to disrupt the existing European security architecture.