Indirect effects of global climate change and the impact of extreme weather events on the German food system

Table of Contents

1 Introduction

1.1 Significance and Aim of the study

1.2 Research Methods

2 State of the Art

2.1 Food systems and food security: concepts, relationships and trends

2.1.1 Food systems and food security

2.1.2 Globalization of our food systems

2.2 Observed and projected climatic changes

2.2.1 Climate change and global warming

2.2.2 Climate variability and extreme weather events

2.2.3 Global climate change projections

2.3 Direct impacts of climate change on food production

2.3.1 Sensitivity of agricultural production to climate change

2.3.2 Long-term effects of climate change

2.3.3 Short-term effects of climate variability and extreme events

3 Indirect effects of climate change on food systems

3.1 Terminology and concept of the indirect effects of climate change

3.2 Transmission of climate change impacts across borders

3.2.1 Infrastructure

3.2.2 Finance

3.2.3 People

3.2.4 Trade

3.3 Transmission of climate change impacts along food systems via trade

3.4 Vulnerability to the indirect impacts of climate change

4 Exposure of the German food system to the indirect effects of climate change

4.1 Structure of the German food system

4.2 Agricultural commodity-import dependency

4.2.1 Soybeans

4.2.2 Palm oil

4.2.3 Bananas

4.2.4 Coffee

4.3 Vulnerability of the major German trading partners

5 Results

5.1 Direct impacts of climate change on food production

5.2 Indirect impacts of climate change on food systems

5.3 Exposure of the German food system to the indirect effects of climate change

6 Discussion

7 Conclusion

Objectives and Core Topics

This master thesis investigates how negative effects of climate change and extreme weather events occurring abroad can affect the German food system, focusing specifically on transmission mechanisms like trade and infrastructure interdependencies.

• Analysis of direct climate change impacts on global agricultural productivity.
• Exploration of transmission pathways (infrastructure, finance, people, trade) for indirect climate risks.
• Evaluation of the German food system's exposure to import-dependent supply chain shocks.
• Case study of the 2010 Russian heatwave to illustrate transboundary ripple effects on food markets.
• Assessment of vulnerability within key agricultural commodity supply chains.

Excerpt from the Book

Summary of Chapters

1 Introduction: Provides the problem statement regarding global climate change and its complex, transboundary risks to national food security, while outlining the research aim and methodology.

2 State of the Art: Offers a critical literature review on food systems, food security, and the climatic drivers of agricultural disruption, including long-term trends and short-term shocks.

3 Indirect effects of climate change on food systems: Establishes the theoretical framework for understanding how climate impacts propagate across borders through pathways like infrastructure, finance, migration, and trade.

4 Exposure of the German food system to the indirect effects of climate change: Analyzes the specific structure of Germany's agricultural imports and assesses the vulnerability of key trading partners to climate shocks.

5 Results: Synthesizes the findings on direct and indirect impacts, confirming that Germany’s high import dependency renders it significantly exposed to external climate-related disruptions.

6 Discussion: Reflects on the challenges of tracing complex indirect impacts and emphasizes the necessity for integrated adaptation planning beyond national borders.

7 Conclusion: Summarizes the study’s findings and underscores the urgency of addressing global interdependencies in adaptation strategies to ensure future food security.

Keywords

Climate change, extreme weather events, climate change impacts, transmission pathways, indirect effects, agricultural productivity, food systems, trade, supply chains, food security, vulnerability, Germany, globalization, teleconnection, import dependency.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the core focus of this thesis?

The research focuses on the "indirect effects" of climate change, specifically how extreme weather events in distant countries impact the German food system through global supply chains.

What are the central themes of the work?

The central themes include food security, the globalization of food markets, transboundary climate risks, and the vulnerability of import-dependent economies.

What is the primary research goal?

The primary goal is to describe direct climate impacts abroad, analyze the concept of indirect effects, and evaluate the exposure level of the German food system to these risks.

Which methodology is applied?

The research is primarily based on an extensive, systematic literature review combined with an analysis of German agricultural import data and trade structures.

What is covered in the main body?

The main body moves from theoretical frameworks of climate transmission (infrastructure, finance, trade) to an empirical assessment of Germany's dependency on specific commodities and vulnerable trading partners.

What defines the core terminology used?

The work utilizes the term "indirect impacts of climate change" as proposed by Benzie et al. (2013) to distinguish these transboundary effects from direct localized climate damage.

How does the 2010 Russian heatwave serve as a case study?

It illustrates how a localized climate disaster led to national export bans, causing ripple effects that spiked wheat prices globally, particularly affecting net-importing countries like Egypt.

What conclusion does the author reach regarding German adaptation?

The author concludes that because Germany is highly integrated into global food markets, it is in its own self-interest to fund adaptation efforts in developing countries to stabilize supply chains.

Why is the "vulnerability" concept used in this study?

It is used as a proxy to measure how exposed Germany is, based on the dependency ratios of its primary agricultural suppliers in regions prone to climate-induced yield failures.