On Future Changes in Mediterranean Winter Temperatures, Precipitation and Relative Humidity

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

2. The representative Concentration Pathways

3. Origin of the data

4. Future periods 2021 – 2050 and 2071 - 2100

4.1 Winter mean temperatures

4.1.1 Warm and cold days

4.2 Extreme values of the maximum and minimum temperatures

4.3 Annual mean relative humidity

4.4 Annual mean precipitation

5. Reference period 1971 – 2000

5.1 Winter mean temperatures

5.1.1 Warm and cold days

5.2 Extreme values of the maximum and minimum temperatures

5.3 Annual mean relative humidity

5.4 Annual mean precipitation

6. Differences between reference and future periods

6.1 Differences in winter mean temperatures

6.1.1 Differences in warm and cold days

6.2 Differences of the extreme values

6.3 Differences in relative humidity

6.4 Differences in precipitation

7. Conclusion

Objectives and Research Themes

This thesis aims to identify the expected changes in 2-meter temperature, daily precipitation, and relative humidity within the Mediterranean region (30°N–50°N, 10°W–45°E) under the RCP 2.6 scenario. By comparing future periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) against the reference period (1971–2000), the study evaluates whether the climate conditions of the Mediterranean area align with the 1.5°C global warming target set by the Paris Agreement.

• Analysis of climate variables under the RCP 2.6 "peak and decline" scenario.
• Evaluation of temperature trends, specifically looking at warm/cold days and extreme values.
• Examination of changes in hydrological parameters, including precipitation and relative humidity.
• Assessment of the Mediterranean region as a climate change "hotspot."
• Comparison of regional climate model (RCM) results (CORDEX/RCA4) against historical reference data.

Excerpt from the Book

Summary of Chapters

1. Introduction: Defines the study area, the research question concerning climate changes in the Mediterranean, and highlights the region's vulnerability as a climate change hotspot.

2. The representative Concentration Pathways: Explains the RCP 2.6 "peak and decline" scenario, its relation to the Paris Agreement, and its unique characteristics compared to other RCP scenarios.

3. Origin of the data: Details the datasets utilized, specifically the CMIP5 and CORDEX projects, and describes the models (EC-Earth/RCA4) used for climate simulation.

4. Future periods 2021 – 2050 and 2071 - 2100: Provides a technical breakdown of the methodology and presents results for temperature, extreme values, humidity, and precipitation for the future periods.

5. Reference period 1971 – 2000: Establishes the baseline climate conditions for the Mediterranean region, using the same variables and metrics as the analysis for the future periods.

6. Differences between reference and future periods: Quantifies the climatic shifts by subtracting reference period data from future projection data, identifying significant differences in temperature, humidity, and precipitation.

7. Conclusion: Summarizes the key findings and concludes that the Mediterranean area under RCP 2.6 is likely to meet the first target of the Paris Agreement regarding global warming.

Keywords

Mediterranean area, RCP 2.6, climate change, CMIP5, CORDEX, winter temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, global warming, Paris Agreement, EC-Earth, RCA4, radiative forcing, extreme values, climate modeling

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the core focus of this thesis?

The thesis investigates how climate variables—specifically 2-meter temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity—will change in the Mediterranean region under the RCP 2.6 climate scenario.

What are the primary themes explored?

The central themes include the RCP 2.6 scenario characteristics, the methodology of regional climate modeling, and the specific projected environmental changes in the Mediterranean for the 21st century.

What is the primary objective of this research?

The main objective is to determine if the projected warming in the Mediterranean area under the RCP 2.6 conditions stays within the 1.5°C threshold defined by the Paris Agreement.

Which scientific methodology is employed?

The study uses downscaled climate data from the CORDEX project, specifically the EC-Earth GCM and RCA4 RCM, to perform a comparative analysis between two future time horizons and a 1971–2000 reference period.

What topics are covered in the main section?

The main body examines the specific development of winter mean temperatures, extreme temperature events, relative humidity patterns, and annual precipitation trends for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100.

Which keywords define this work?

Key terms include Mediterranean area, RCP 2.6, CMIP5, CORDEX, climate change, and various climate parameters like temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity.

What does the "peak and decline" term mean in this context?

It refers to the RCP 2.6 scenario, where radiative forcing increases until the mid-21st century and then decreases (declines) towards the end of the century.

How is the Mediterranean region defined geographically in this thesis?

The region is defined as the area lying between the coordinates 30°N to 50°N and 10°W to 45°E.

What is the significance of the 10-year run mean used in the figures?

The 10-year run mean is used to smooth out annual variations and better recognize the long-term trends in temperature, humidity, and precipitation over the analyzed periods.