Cartels Between Life and Death. What Determines Cartel Survival?

Table of Contents

• INTRODUCTION
• DETERMINANTS OF CARTEL SURVIVAL
  • Fundamentals of Cartel Stability
  • Geographical Scope
  • Number of Firms
  • Ringleader
  • Type of Infringement
  • Internal Enforcement Methods
  • Entry and Exit Dynamics
  • Cartel Enforcement
  • Macroeconomic Determinants
• DATA
  • Data Set Description
  • Variables
• METHODOLOGY AND ESTIMATION STRATEGY
  • Principles of Survival Analysis
  • Duration Modeling and Competing Risks
  • Time-varying Covariates
  • Models
• RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
  • Estimation Results
  • Robustness Checks and Biases
• CONCLUSION
• APPENDIX - TABLES AND FIGURES

Objectives and Key Themes

This thesis investigates the factors that influence the lifespan of cartels, specifically examining those that contribute to a shorter or longer duration. Using a dataset of 123 cartel cases convicted by the European Commission, the author applies various statistical models to analyze the impact of several key determinants on cartel survival.

• Internal cartel organization and enforcement mechanisms
• Market factors, including demand volatility and industry dynamics
• Economic and political context, particularly the role of regulatory enforcement
• The impact of macroeconomic variables on cartel stability
• The influence of geographical scope and the number of participating firms

Chapter Summaries

• Introduction: This chapter establishes the research context and introduces the significance of cartel longevity for economic policy and competition law. The chapter outlines the objectives of the thesis and the key research questions.
• Determinants of Cartel Survival: This chapter provides a theoretical framework for understanding cartel stability by examining various factors that have been identified in existing literature. The chapter explores topics such as the importance of internal organization, enforcement mechanisms, and external factors like market conditions and regulatory pressure.
• Data: This chapter delves into the data used for the analysis, describing the data set and the specific variables considered. The chapter provides information on the source of the data, the criteria used for selection, and the characteristics of the cartels included in the study.
• Methodology and Estimation Strategy: This chapter presents the statistical methods employed to analyze the data. The chapter outlines the principles of survival analysis, including the models used to study the duration of cartels. This chapter also discusses the handling of competing risks and time-varying covariates within the analytical framework.
• Results and Discussion: This chapter presents the findings of the statistical analysis. The chapter discusses the estimated effects of different determinants on cartel survival and provides interpretations of the results. The chapter also examines the robustness of the findings through sensitivity analyses and considers potential sources of bias.

Keywords

Cartel duration, cartel stability, survival analysis, proportional hazard models, competing risks, time-varying covariates, internal enforcement, demand volatility, market structure, competition policy, European Commission.