Bachelorarbeit, 2017
35 Seiten, Note: 1.3
1 Introduction
2 Literature Overview
2.1 Effect of Stock Price Evaluation on Firm Investment
2.1.1 Informational Channel
2.1.2 Equity-Channel
2.2 Reasons and Effects of Mispricing in Competitive Markets
3 Hypotheses
4 Methodology
4.1 Data
4.2 Empirical Framework
5 Empirical Results
5.1 Findings
5.2 Robustness Tests
6 Conclusion
This thesis examines the relationship between stock price mispricing and real firm investment, specifically investigating how industry concentration influences this connection. The research seeks to identify whether firms in competitive industries exhibit higher sensitivity to stock mispricing when making investment decisions compared to firms in more concentrated environments.
Informational Channel
Starting with the theoretical model of Dow and Gorton (1997), many empirical studies find evidence of an informational channel. The majority of economists also analyzes different ways of how managers benefit from information within the stock price as well as from different types of information.
Dow and Gorton (1997) develop a model in which managers can learn from the information given in the stock price. They show how shareholders can indirectly guide the managers’ decisions, such as firm investments. Hence the stock price is formed by the aggregated information of all shareholders. In case the stock price is high, Dow and Gorton argue, the shareholders evaluate the upcoming investment opportunities as promising. If managers have the right incentives (e.g. contracts based on future stock returns) to overcome agency problems, they will act according to the shareholders’ will. Dow and Gorton (1997, p. 1090) show in their model that also shareholders need incentives (e.g. observing that managers learn from their information) to produce information. Furthermore, they prove that price efficiency does not necessarily lead to economic efficiency. For instance, if the price contains no information, Dow and Gorton argue, the managers may not invest. Of course, if there is no investment, investors do not have any incentives to produce information. However, the price is efficient in this scenario while the economy is inefficient. To sum it up, Dow and Gorton (1997, p. 1089) emphasize on two types of information embedded in the stock price. On the one hand the forecasting information about future investment opportunities and on the other hand retrospective information about managers’ past decisions.
1 Introduction: Introduces the research gap regarding how industry concentration affects the relationship between stock mispricing and real firm investment.
2 Literature Overview: Provides a theoretical foundation by discussing the informational channel and the equity-channel as primary drivers of firm investment.
3 Hypotheses: Formulates the two central hypotheses concerning the sensitivity of investment to mispricing and the moderating effect of industry competition.
4 Methodology: Details the data collection process from Compustat and the empirical regression model used to test the hypotheses.
5 Empirical Results: Presents the statistical findings, showing a significant positive relation between mispricing and investment, which is stronger in competitive industries.
6 Conclusion: Summarizes the findings, confirming that industry concentration enhances the investment sensitivity to stock mispricing.
Stock Mispricing, Firm Investment, Industry Concentration, Informational Channel, Equity-Channel, Discretionary Accruals, Tobin’s Q, Herfindahl Index, Corporate Finance, Market Competition, Capital Expenditure, Investment Sensitivity, Financial Constraints, Empirical Analysis, Market Efficiency
The work investigates the link between stock price mispricing and real investment decisions made by firms, specifically exploring how industry concentration impacts this relationship.
The thesis centers on two main mechanisms: the informational channel, where managers use stock prices to infer investment opportunities, and the equity-channel, where mispricing affects the cost of capital and financing.
The study asks how industry concentration influences the relationship between stock mispricing and real firm investment.
The author uses a linear regression model, utilizing discretionary accruals as a proxy for mispricing, and employs the Herfindahl index to categorize industries based on their level of concentration.
The main body covers a comprehensive literature review, the derivation of hypotheses, the empirical framework (data and regression setup), and the analysis of results including robustness tests.
Key terms include Stock Mispricing, Industry Concentration, Informational Channel, Corporate Investment, and Discretionary Accruals.
The study suggests that firms in competitive markets rely more on common industry signals and public information, leading them to react more quickly to stock price changes to maintain competitive advantage.
Mispricing is proxied using discretionary accruals, based on the approach established by Polk and Sapienza (2009).
The index is used to measure industry concentration, allowing the author to split the sample into concentrated and competitive groups to test the second hypothesis.
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