Japan's (UN)certain future? Permanent membership on the United Nations Security Council - A Delphi Study

Table of Contents

1. INTRODUCTION

2. THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE: GENERAL REMARKS ON METHODOLOGY

2.1. Origin and Fields of Application

2.2. Definition and Classification - an Attempt

2.3. Potential and Limits

3. CONTEXTUAL EMBEDDING OF JAPAN’S CANDIDATURE

3.1. Security Council Reform - a Precondition

3.1.1. The Security Council: Composition, Functions and Powers

3.1.2. Why Reform?

3.1.3. Security Council Reform Discussions: Development and Content

3.2 Japan’s Quest for Permanent Security Council Membership

3.2.1. Credentials and Motives

3.2.2. Japan’s Pursuit of its Quest

3.2.3. National and International Support

3.2.4. Japan’s UN policy

4. JAPAN - A PERMANENT MEMBER ON THE SECURITY COUNCIL? RESULTS OF A DELPHI STUDY

4.1. The Delphi Technique in the Context of the Present Study

4.1.1. Aims

4.1.2. Type

4.1.3. Resources

4.2. Participants

4.2.1. Structure of the Panel of Experts

4.2.2. Scope of the Panel of Experts

4.2.3. Recruitment of the Experts

4.2.4. The Final Panel

4.3. Questionnaire

4.3.1. Structure and Scope

4.3.2. Type of Questions

4.3.3. Technical Implementation

4.3.4. The Final Questionnaire

4.4. Implementation and Evaluation of the Study

4.4.1. First and Second Wave of Inquiry

4.4.2. The Feedback

4.4.3. The Dropout Rate

4.4.4. Changes in Expert Opinion between the First and the Second Wave

4.5. Results

4.5.1. Japan’s Prospect of Becoming a Permanent Security Council Member

4.5.2. Japan’s Continuing Pursuit of its Quest

4.5.3. Development of National and International Support

4.5.4. Japan’s Future UN Policy

5. CONCLUSION

Research Objective and Core Themes

The primary objective of this thesis is to investigate whether Japan can be expected to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council in the future, utilizing the Delphi technique to project future trends and developments within this context.

• Security Council reform as a necessary precondition for Japan's membership.
• Evaluation of Japan's credentials, motivations, and the intensity of its pursuit for a permanent seat.
• Analysis of national and international support structures regarding Japan's bid.
• Investigation of potential consequences for Japan's future United Nations policy under different scenarios.

Excerpt from the Book

Summary of Chapters

1. INTRODUCTION: This chapter introduces Japan's constitutional ambition to occupy an "honored place" in international society and frames the United Nations Security Council as a primary measure for this status, setting the stage for the thesis's investigation.

2. THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE: GENERAL REMARKS ON METHODOLOGY: An overview of the Delphi technique, covering its origins from the Oracle of Delphi to contemporary applications, its definitions, and a critical look at its potential and limitations as a forecasting method.

3. CONTEXTUAL EMBEDDING OF JAPAN’S CANDIDATURE: This section explores the broader environment of Security Council reform, which serves as a prerequisite for membership, and details Japan's specific quest, including its motivations, pursuit strategies, support base, and overall UN policy.

4. JAPAN - A PERMANENT MEMBER ON THE SECURITY COUNCIL? RESULTS OF A DELPHI STUDY: This central chapter details the execution of the Delphi study, from preparatory stages and expert panel composition to questionnaire design, implementation, and the comprehensive analysis of results regarding Japan's future prospects.

5. CONCLUSION: This chapter synthesizes the Delphi study's findings to predict Japan's future involvement with the Security Council, assessing its likelihood of gaining permanent membership and the potential shifts in its foreign and UN policies.

Keywords

Japan, United Nations, Security Council, Permanent Membership, Delphi Technique, Security Council Reform, Self-Defense Forces, Peacekeeping Operations, Foreign Policy, International Relations, Veto Right, Official Development Assistance, Multilateralism, Geopolitical Representation, Expert Opinion.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the core subject of this research?

The work examines Japan's long-standing ambition to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council and analyzes the likelihood and implications of this development.

What are the primary themes addressed?

The study centers on Security Council reform, the methodological application of the Delphi technique, the drivers behind Japan's quest, and the potential impact of such membership on Japan's international behavior.

What is the ultimate research goal?

The goal is to determine the future trends and developments concerning Japan's candidacy and to provide a scientifically grounded forecast based on expert consensus.

Which methodology is employed?

The author uses the Delphi technique, an expert-based forecasting method, to navigate areas of imperfect knowledge and reach reliable, structured predictions.

What aspects are examined in the main body?

The study covers the structural aspects of the UN Security Council, the evolution of Japan's UN policy, its current diplomatic and economic efforts, and various scenarios for its future engagement with the UN system.

How can this study be characterized by its keywords?

The research is defined by its focus on international diplomacy, peacekeeping (PKO), Japanese domestic politics, and the strategic pursuit of prestige and global influence within the UN framework.

How does the "civilian power" concept influence the study?

The study analyzes whether Japan's identity as a "civilian power" — relying on economic contributions rather than hard military power — acts as an obstacle or a catalyst for its permanent membership bid.

What conclusion does the study reach regarding the veto right?

The expert panel participants generally deem it unlikely that a future permanent seat for Japan would include the power of veto, highlighting a significant divergence between Japan's aspirations and realistic international outcomes.