Hot Hand Fallacy and the impact of perceived streakiness on human behaviour

Table of Contents

• Introduction
• Motivation and basic background
• Methodology and organization
• The Hot Hand: A literature overview
• Introducing the Hot Hand
• Hot Hand and Gambler's Fallacy
• Streakiness in the financial market
• The Hot Hand effect in sports
• Theoretical Issues
• Problematic issues of Hot Hand research in sports
• More research regarding the Hot Hand in sports
• Empirical analysis of professional bowling data
• Basics of bowling
• Collection of data
• Analysis of professional bowlers' performance
• General analysis of bowling data
• Individual analysis of bowling data
• Analysis utilizing conventional tests
• The Hot Hand in the betting market

Objectives and Key Themes

This thesis examines the "Hot Hand" effect, a cognitive bias where individuals perceive a streak of success as a predictor of future success. The research explores the Hot Hand phenomenon in various contexts, including sports and financial markets, and analyzes its impact on human behavior.

• The "Hot Hand" effect as a cognitive bias
• The relationship between perceived streakiness and decision-making
• The impact of the Hot Hand effect in sports
• The influence of the Hot Hand effect in financial markets
• Empirical analysis of the Hot Hand effect in professional bowling

Chapter Summaries

• Introduction: This chapter introduces the concept of the Hot Hand effect and outlines the motivation and methodology of the research.
• The Hot Hand: A literature overview: This chapter explores the existing literature on the Hot Hand effect, examining its theoretical foundations and addressing its relationship with the Gambler's Fallacy. The chapter also examines the Hot Hand effect in different contexts, including the financial market and sports.
• Empirical analysis of professional bowling data: This chapter presents an empirical analysis of professional bowling data to examine the presence and impact of the Hot Hand effect in this specific sport. It analyzes the performance of professional bowlers and utilizes statistical tests to evaluate the validity of the Hot Hand hypothesis.
• The Hot Hand in the betting market: This chapter explores the role of the Hot Hand effect in the betting market and discusses its implications for betting strategies and market dynamics.

Keywords

The primary keywords and focus topics of this thesis are: Hot Hand effect, cognitive bias, streakiness, decision-making, sports, financial markets, empirical analysis, professional bowling, betting market.