Diplomarbeit, 2007
76 Seiten, Note: 1,0
1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Research Gap
1.3 Research Questions
1.4 Structure
2 Methodology
2.1 Bibliometric Analysis
2.1.1 Database Selection
2.1.2 Automated Search
2.1.3 Manual Filtering
2.1.4 Categorization
2.1.5 Analysis
2.2 Literature Review
3 Results from the Bibliometric Analysis
3.1 Sample
3.2 Major Conferences
3.3 Major Journals
3.4 Major Authors
3.5 Identified Subjects
4 Results from the Literature Review
4.1 Strategic Foresight and its Elements
4.2 Goals of Strategic Foresight
4.3 Organizational Structure of Strategic Foresight
4.4 Actors involved in Strategic Foresight
4.5 The Process of Strategic Foresight
4.6 Methods of Strategic Foresight
4.7 Value Creation
5 Conclusion and Further Research
This thesis aims to systematically identify and analyze existing scientific literature regarding Strategic Foresight. By employing bibliometric methods and a comprehensive literature review, the study seeks to map the research landscape, identify key contributors (authors, journals, conferences), and categorize the primary subjects discussed in order to highlight established frameworks and identify current research gaps.
4.1 Strategic Foresight and its Elements
The Oxford Dictionary describes foresight as “the ability to see future needs” and to “care in preparing for these”. Strategic Foresight is defined as the ability to look forward and to use the insights in organizationally useful ways, such as shaping the strategy or defining new markets, products, and services. It is a process, which allows identifying future developments in science, technology, economy, and society systematically before these developments become trends. This process involves methods and techniques to gather, asses, and interpret relevant information and to support decision-making. Foresight is not forecasting; it does not predict the future, but prepares to meet future requirements and opportunities by anticipating a range of alternative developments.
The strategic areas to be analyzed are often classified as economic, technological, social, and political environment. Following Rohrbeck, et al. (2007), these areas are to be analyzed by means of Technology Foresight, Competitor Foresight, Consumer Foresight, and Political Environment Foresight.
1 Introduction: Defines the relevance of Strategic Foresight in dynamic markets and outlines the research gap and questions.
2 Methodology: Details the bibliometric approach, including database selection, search strategy, and criteria for manual filtering and categorization.
3 Results from the Bibliometric Analysis: Presents findings on the sample size, relevant journals, key conferences, influential authors, and subject distributions.
4 Results from the Literature Review: Synthesizes academic findings on the definition, goals, organizational structure, actors, processes, methods, and value creation of Strategic Foresight.
5 Conclusion and Further Research: Summarizes the study’s findings and suggests directions for future research based on identified gaps.
Strategic Foresight, Bibliometrics, Technology Foresight, Innovation Management, Competitive Intelligence, Environmental Scanning, Research Methodology, Literature Review, Technology Scouting, Roadmapping, Delphi Method, Scenario Planning, Value Creation, Weak Signals, Decision-Making.
This thesis examines the scientific literature on Strategic Foresight to understand the structure of the field, its key contributors, and the methodologies used.
The study centers on definitions, organizational structures, actors involved, the processes of foresight, specific methodologies like roadmapping and Delphi, and the measurement of value creation.
The primary goal is to provide a structured overview of the existing literature, identify the most influential researchers and journals, and determine current research gaps.
The research uses bibliometric analysis, involving quantitative assessment of citations and publications, combined with a qualitative literature review to synthesize findings.
The main part covers the elements of Strategic Foresight, its goals, the organizational positioning within companies, the roles of different actors, and diverse process models.
The work is best characterized by terms such as Strategic Foresight, bibliometrics, innovation management, competitive intelligence, and technology forecasting.
The thesis reviews how scholars attempt to measure the benefits of foresight and discusses frameworks like the Return on Competitive Intelligence Investment (ROCII).
Yes, the thesis differentiates between micro-level (organizational) and macro-level (regional/national) foresight, highlighting how objectives and methods differ between these levels.
The author identifies a notable lack of consensus and guidance on how to select appropriate foresight methods for specific situations and how to quantitatively measure the value created by foresight activities.
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